Anti-Arms Group makes Valid Point |
Publication | Business Day |
Date | 2002-01-29 |
Web Link | www.bday.co.za |
What are we to make of the latest salvo from the Economists Allied for Arms Reduction?
The insane ravings of a group of dreaming pacifists, leftover lefties, and publicity seekers led by Terry Crawford-Browne? Or can they be taken seriously?
The raison d'≖tre of the group of economists, known as Ecaar, can simplistically be described as fighting for butter versus guns. Crawford-Browne is remembered for his role in successfully campaigning for financial sanctions against the apartheid regime.
The organisation's latest move is a submission to the Myburgh commission investigating last year's depreciation of the rand.
Once again, it has called for the immediate cancellation of the arms programme and the associated industrial participation programme. The submission follows the organisation's application to the Cape High Court for nullification of the loan accords and guarantees underpinning the arms deal.
If I am to be consistent, I ought to lambaste Ecaar for muddying the waters of the Myburgh commission. The organisation's submission falls far outside the ambit of the commission's work, which is already complex and wide perhaps too wide.
The commission's terms of reference were framed in a way that specifically excluded taking into consideration the views of every economist who might have an opinion. And there are too many. The terms of reference are focused on currency market practice wrongdoing and unethical behaviour. The idea is not for a judicial commission to pronounce on government and the Reserve Bank's policies.
So, whether you think the rand is weakening because of policies towards Zimbabwe, HIV/AIDS, crime, corruption, employment creation, exchange control, interest rates, affirmative action, inflation, immigration or emigration and all the other things raised by the whingeing classes, the Myburgh commission is not the place to air them.
These issues fall outside the brief. But this has clearly been lost on Ecaar.
Three cheers to it for keeping the guns versus butter debate alive, and for making the link between the massive arms purchases and the sliding currency. A publicity stunt? Of course, but one that is needed.
Yes, my applause is inconsistent with the argument put previously that the commission's brief should not be to pronounce on policy.
However, as Aldous Huxley said: "The only completely consistent people are the dead." So, well done to Ecaar for keeping the arms issue on the economic policy agenda.
The arms procurement package will affect our economy in many damaging ways. The R43bn cost has ballooned to about R55bn at yesterday's exchange rate, spread from the 2001 fiscal year to 2011-12. Also, that excludes financing costs and cost escalation factors.
The investigating team's arms package report reminds us: "The SA government is fully exposed to the depreciation of the rand against foreign currencies, which accounts for about 75% of the total purchase amount. There is no effective way of hedging the currency risk inherent in the procurements."
That is the point that Ecaar is making albeit in a sensationalist and impractical manner.
The organisation says government should force Anglo AmericanDe Beers, Old Mutual and other SA companies that have left for London to come back. The forced return of capital, the organisation argues, would stabilise the rand.
That is a nonsensical suggestion which no one, least of all the Myburgh commission, should take seriously for even one second. The proposal falls into the insane, leftover leftie category. All dressed up with placard and nowhere to go.
But there are practical suggestions that economists favouring butter over guns can make. Government should immediately cancel the second and third phases of the arms procurement plan.
Just say no to the 19 Gripen light fighter and 12 Hawk jet trainer aircraft from Saab and BAE Systems.
How difficult a decision can that be, given that SA schools have a shortage of 50000 classrooms and about 30% of all schools have no access to running water?
Privatisation has run aground and government has raised an unbudgeted $1,5bn in foreign debt. Capital is fleeing SA. Who needs the extra jets?
Steyn is Managing Editor.
With acknowledgements to Andries Cornelissen and Business Day.