Publication: Business Day Issued: Date: 2002-02-21 Reporter: Terry CrawfordBrowne Editor:

Manuel's Deadline Expires

 

Publication  Business Day
Date 2002-02-21
Reporter Terry Crawford-Browne
Web Link www.bday.co.za

 

Thanks for taking note, Greta Steyn, that since December SA has borrowed more than R25bn in foreign loans (Command performance required of Manuel, February 15).

This financial spin doctoring is undoubtedly the major factor in the recovery of the rand from R13,88 on December 20, but confirms that the treasury and Reserve Bank have learnt nothing from the forward book and Asian contagion debacle of 1998.

The minister's deadline expires today to file affidavits detailing the basis on which he intends to oppose Economists Allied for Arms Reduction-SA's (Ecaar-SA's) application to the Cape High Court for cancellation of the arms programme. We contend that it is strategically, economically and financially irrational, and thus constitutionally unlawful.

The minister failed to comply with the provisions of the Exchequer Audit Act or Public Finance Management Act that govern the management of his portfolio.

The arms programme was costed at R6,25 to the dollar. The cabinet was warned by many, including the finance department, that the foreign exchange and other risks were considerable, and would limit SA's ability to meet the social upliftment commitments of the Bill of Rights. Despite these warnings, the minister recklessly and unlawfully committed SA to foreign loans to fund the arms deal.

Our application includes projections made in March last year of rand/dollar exchange rates of R31,70 to the dollar by 2010, R37,07 by 2011 and R43,45 by 2012. These projections have already proved understated, with some analysts predicting R15 or R16 by the year's end if the Zimbabwean situation continues to deteriorate.

Bennie Bunsee (Time running out to make the right changes, February 15) pleads for "government and all South Africans to realise that we are sitting on a timebomb". Illustrating this, the housing shortage in the Western Cape is estimated by the housing department at 310 000 units, and is expected to increase to 410 000 units by the year 2006.

Yet all 410 000 units could be constructed for less than the cost of the three submarines, now estimated at more than R10bn, thanks to the collapse of the rand. In the process, an estimated 290 000 jobs would be created.

Capt (now Adm) Cubby Howell gushed before the joint standing committee on defence that "submarines are the ultimate stealth weapon to protect fish".

The committee was told on another occasion that "submarines make small navies important, and SA needs the capacity to give the Americans a bloody nose".

Our government was gullible and naive in swallowing the pretensions of the "toys for boys" lobby. At issue now is whether the cabinet and the finance minister will have the courage to concede that the security needs of people take priority over fish, and to cancel the arms deal at no cost to SA taxpayers.

Terry Crawford-Browne Economists Allied for Arms Reduction-SA
With acknowledgements to Terry Crawford-Browne and Business Day.