To enforce peace on the continent, capacity is crucial even in the absence of war

The formation of the African Union (AU) and signs of an end to conflicts across much of Africa in the Great Lakes region, Angola and in the Sudan have given new urgency to the demands for SA to take its proper place as a continental power.

Analysts agree that as overwhelming as SA's diplomatic and commercial clout is on the continent, the realities of the peace agreements are such that they will have to be policed, possibly for some years. In this context SA needs a credible defence force to be able to enforce peace on the continent. And as the SA Air Force's (SAAF's) involvement in the flood rescue efforts in Mozambique illustrated two years ago, a defence capacity is important even in the absence of war.

Says Henri Boshoff, a former SA Defence Force (SADF) officer now with the Institute for Security Studies: "As a member of the United Nations (UN) and the new AU, we are deeply committed to the advancement of world peace. This is also reflected in our commitment to the region and continent of which we are part. It is important to remember that the AU's principles are based on a number of antecedents, including those in the security area.

"At the regional level people want SA to co-operate more and to project stabilising power. The SA National Defence Force (SANDF) has 930 personnel deployed in Africa in various regional tasks, including the battalion strength protection force in Burundi, 200 specialists serving with the UN mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo and observers in the UN mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea.

"Greater regional involvement, however, will be difficult given the present functional level that finds the SANDF with some key equipment gaps, particular in terms of sea lift, airlift and air defence."

Under the presidency of Nelson Mandela, the SANDF excused itself from elaborate and risky peacekeeping ventures on the basis that it was busy rebuilding its defence force from the remnants of the homeland and guerrilla armies and merging them with the mostly-intact (SADF).

This process is now complete. Since the integration process started in 1994, 9771 personnel have been demobilised and the number of former SADF members in the SANDF is 43486 (compared to 82705 in 1994). Former Umkhonto we Sizwe and Azanian People's Liberation Army members comprise 10734 and 5071, respectively. The former Transkei, Ciskei, Bophuthatswana and Venda forces have 5970 members and the former KwaZulu Self-Protection Force 1608 members in the SANDF. The current SANDF force size is 75000.

According to the defence department, the ideal force size is between 65000 and 70000.

Inevitably, calculations of the strength and preparedness of the SANDF will determine to what extent the now-restrained belligerents on the African continent will feel compelled to stick with the peace agreements. Just how ready is the SANDF for the task ahead?

The answers vary between despair and hopeful bravado. Military analysts question whether the SANDF is equal to the task, and point to reduced budgets, high levels of HIV/AIDS among staff, low morale complicated by race issues and problems of discipline and a lack of management.

Recently Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota said, for example, that the SAAF did not have the financial or personnel resources to allow full operational readiness of the new jet fighters and trainers that made up a large part of the R53bn strategic arms acquisitions.

Recently, MPs were told at a briefing by the Department of Defence that only four tanks and eight Rooikat armoured cars were in operation, an assertion that was denied by Lekota, who said: "The SANDF is perfectly placed to fulfil its obligations to the country. On the basis of our risk analysis we have no reason to believe it would fail or be unable to defend the country."

But his optimism must be seen against other official pronouncements, like that of Deputy Defence Minister Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge, who said in May the 52 battalions and 183 commando units that made up the bulk of the reserves needed R264m a year to function properly. This year's allocation, however, was R6,6m.

The SANDF is planning to cut personnel levels to free up funds for equipment. Analysts have said the ideal budget is a third each for personnel, operating costs and capital equipment. The current defence budget is R18,4bn of which R6,3bn goes towards the purchase of the arms package, and more than half to personnel, leaving little left for equipment, and what equipment there is cannot be kept in the field for any length of time.

Complicating matters is the large number of soldiers who are HIV positive. Lekota told a recent briefing that, according to the Military Health Service, about 22% of the SANDF were HIV-positive.

In spite of the problems, says Lekota: "We are capable of holding our own in dealing with any issue with the available resources and equipment from the point of view of landward defences."

Others are not so sure

According to Democratic Alliance defence spokesman Hendrik Schmidt, the major problems in the SANDF revolve around morale and a lack of discipline.

"They're keeping us in the dark about the problems in the SANDF. There is no real accountability. Morale is low.

"There are too many generals and senior staff in management. They don't have fit and able privates. There is far too much hardware, and not enough troops and money to run it."

Schmidt said the concerns about problems in the SANDF are shared across the party-political board.

With analysts estimating that the SANDF could probably field an operational brigade, about 3000 troops, and with the SANDF recently abandoning border-patrol duty only to be ordered back by the cabinet it is clear that reports of SA having only four armoured cars ready to go into battle may be exaggerated, but hint at real problems.

Ironically, it is in keeping the peace possibly the SA military's biggest challenge to date that the truth or otherwise of defence preparedness will be known.

With acknowledgements to Patrick Bulger and Business Day.