Former president Nelson Mandela took many South Africans by surprise at the weekend when, during his 85th birthday celebrations, he announced that President Thabo Mbeki would not seek to change the constitution and run for a third term.

The question raised by his comments is: was this ever on the cards? Does Mandela know something South Africans do not, or was he just using the international spotlight on his birthday to allay foreign fears about SA's politics after the Mbeki era?

Mandela said on Friday: "Not the Mbeki I know. He could not do that. He will not change the constitution in order to benefit himself. That is the last thing he would do. Whether I'm alive or gone, he will respect the constitution."

Some members of the African National Congress (ANC) national executive committee (NEC) appear aware of concerns raised within Mandela's circle internationally by influential leaders and observers. Their suspicion is that these may well be the same people who fretted about the post-Mandela era and predicted leadership battles within the ruling ANC.

The party dispelled this when Mandela announced Mbeki as his successor, with the ANC's blessing, at least 18 months before his term as president ended.

It is generally accepted that Mbeki will serve a second term in office. Until recently, Deputy President Jacob Zuma was his most obvious successor, but corruption allegations surrounding him have muddied the waters.

In the absence of an obvious successor in the wings, the focus may well fall on the possibility of a third term for Mbeki. But this would require an amendment to the constitution, which stipulates that "no person may hold office as president for more than two terms".

Bheki Khumalo, the president's spokesman, says the issue has never arisen within government and, anyway, this is something only the party can deal with. And the party line is that raising the issue now is premature. If it is to be debated, this will only happen at the 2007 ANC national conference. The real dilemma for the party will be if there is overwhelming support at that point for Mbeki to stand as ANC president for a third time, which will effectively set him up for another term as president of the country. The only way around it then would be for Mbeki to decline to stand again.

The president has not raised the topic in the party.

An NEC member says Mbeki would be the last person to make such a proposal since he worked hard to dissuade Malawian President Bakili Muluzi, Zambia's former president Frederick Chiluba and others in the Southern African Development Community from extending their terms in the interests of democracy and economic prosperity.

ANC Youth League President Malusi Gigaba says Mandela raised the issue because some of his international guests unwittingly spread negative stereotypes about Africans.

They believe that South Africans are as prone to sabotaging their own efforts to build democracy as the rest of the continent.

Gigaba says these sentiments display an inherent distrust of Mbeki's presidency and are, therefore, a mockery of his leadership in the region and on the continent.

This attitude creates unnecessary confusion because the ANC has repeatedly proven its loyalty to the constitution and the democratisation of the continent, he says.

He says debate about changing the constitution to give Mbeki a third term has not arisen within the party, and particularly not in the youth league.

Gigaba believes the issue is unlikely to surface now, as the party will probably use its 2007 national conference to elect Mbeki's successor.

"Mandela has done well in alerting us about these rumours so that we are able to deal with them," Gigaba says.

Government spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe argues that the ANC is focusing on the 2004 elections and is not at all worried about the presidency after Mbeki.

The ANC, he says, has learnt a lot from Africa and the world about how political despots are created. The party will guard against the elevation of an individual's contribution over its ethos of collective leadership.

Azanian People's Organisation secretary-general Dan Habedi says the culture of civil participation in all spheres of government is likely to discourage any president from wanting to overstay his welcome by changing the constitution.

Another guarantee that ensures no leader serves three terms, Habedi says, is the plethora of ambitious leaders in every party with a liberation struggle background. He believes that even if Mbeki desired a third term, many leaders within the ANC itself would vigorously oppose such a move as it could affect their own ambitions.

Pan Africanist Congress deputy president Themba Godi says the best way to ensure no president remained in power for more than two terms was political education to enlighten voters about the consequences of not building capacity in opposition parties.

With acknowledgements to Hopewell Radebe, Robyn Chalmers and the Business Day.