I have in the past often observed how quickly the African National Congress (ANC) has come under the grip of what sociologist Robert Michels called the "iron law of oligarchy" a reference to the tendency towards centralisation of power in political parties.

Michels' analysis inspired a whole range of theories of a power elite that controls and manipulates society. The historical experience, however, is also just as full of examples of oligarchy or centralisation reaching its limits.

Centralisation reaches its limits because there can never be enough patronage or positions to go around. After a while, the disaffected outsiders may launch a revolt against the narrowing circle of powerful insiders.

Political scientist Benjamin Barber has argued political parties were created to maintain the precarious balance between the centrifugal (decentralising) and the centripetal (centralising) logics of politics. Political parties were meant to be "the buckle linking governmental authority to the people in whom authority had its theoretic origin, linking elite and mass in a continuum that made voters the ultimate, yet passive, arbiters and the elite the active, but dependent, governors of the nation's political life".

This has been a very precarious balance indeed, with most political parties tending to fall on either side of the scale. The question is whether the ANC will exhibit more the centripetal or more the centrifugal tendencies as it moves towards next year's elections and the all-important 2009 election.

Daggers are now drawn in what has become a high stakes battle for political succession in a post-Mbeki period. Speculation abounds about why there has all of a sudden been a spate of leaks implicating senior political leaders in corruption.

The most common speculation is that the leaks were designed to nip the presidential ambitions of people such as Deputy President Jacob Zuma and Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota in the bud.

We are told that, after all, Zuma's ascendancy to the deputy presidency was supposed to be a temporary measure after government spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe had declined to take the position. The ANC could thus be cleaning up after that organisational mess so that someone else can take over as deputy president.

Who that successor might be is of course a mystery to all of us lesser mortals. All we are left to do is speculate whether it will be Netshitenzhe or Foreign Minister Nkosazana DlaminiZuma, or Public Enterprises Minister Jeff Radebe, or Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula, or ANC spokesman Smuts Ngonyama.

And if Mbeki should seek a third term, he would do so with a trusted deputy president, quite like Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe who has stayed with Simon Muzenda for so long.

I emphasise, though: this scenario is possible only if we go along with the assumption of an all-powerful political elite riding on the centripetal logic of the iron law of oligarchy.

However, the alternative scenario may be the emergence of disgruntled and disaffected factions within the ANC as stakes for the 2009 elections become higher. For example, if Zuma goes down, will he go down alone?

Already, there are allegations that certain sections of the intelligence services loyal to Zuma are behind a scurrilous smear campaign against the director of public prosecutions, Bulelani Ngcuka. But Ngcuka may well be the fall guy in a political battle that has very little to do with him.

Zuma's political rivals may simply have put the leak out there, leaving Ngcuka with no option but to investigate. The most prudent thing for Ngcuka to do then is to just desist from making public remarks that may be construed as political, and leave the investigation to the professionals within the directorate.

That way he would take himself out of a political battle not of his making and concentrate on his job.

However, even if people like Zuma or Lekota are permanently removed from the succession race, there may be others who may see their postMbeki dreams deferred if they do not seek and get the deputy presidency now. After all, there can be only one deputy president at a time, and the wait for a turn could be excruciatingly long. For others still, the deputy presidency may not even be the best way to seek leadership of the organisation.

Others still may not want to get muddied up in the current battles. Only after a declaration of a third term would they, for example, openly challenge the president. With their own ambitions permanently foreclosed they would at that point literally have nothing to lose.

The point of all of this is that in politics there are certain inescapable truisms. One of those is that no amount of political patronage and political control can extend long and wide enough to satisfy everyone.

That simple realisation can either lead to self-destructive jockeying for position, or to open and transparent preparations for democratic succession. That is the ANC's choice.

Mangcu is executive director of the Steve Biko Foundation.

With acknowledgement to the Business Day.