Deputy President Jacob Zuma finds himself in the political wilderness, a place that holds many potential dangers for government and the ruling African National Congress (ANC).

The extraordinary announcement by Bulelani Ngcuka, the national director of public prosecutions, that the Scorpions would not prosecute despite having a prima facie case, was a body blow for Zuma.

However, it has the potential to be equally damaging for the ANC, of which Zuma is deputy president. An election looms. Most of the big issues being decided on by the cabinet at present are in preparation for that event.

The recent turnaround on the dispensing of antiretroviral drugs is not unrelated to the election. It was one of the key issues that needed to be dealt with to shore up support among the voting electorate.

The decision followed hot on the heels of last month's cabinet gathering, where a strategy to deliver an expanded public works programme, as well as an increased focus on rural development, was outlined by President Thabo Mbeki.

The other big election issue is SA's high crime rate, and we can no doubt look forward to a big announcement on how government is tackling crime.

And then there is the arms deal. The ANC could not enter an election year with a cloud hanging over one of its most respected, and longest serving, members. If there was political pressure placed on Ngcuka and his masters and reports of a cabinet bust-up last week indicate there was it centred on charging Zuma or dropping the case. Finalise the matter quickly was no doubt the message.

Ngcuka's comment that the Scorpions have a prima facie case against Zuma has, though, thrown a spanner in the works. It has left Zuma in an invidious position, labouring under a cloud of suspicion and unable to defend himself in court.

Zuma complained at the SA Transport and Allied Workers' Union congress this week that Ngcuka's decision not to prosecute was not helping him at all. Ngcuka's comments have left suspicion Zuma has, indeed, been implicated in acts of fraud.

The problem for the ANC is Zuma has been left with little option but to fight for his political life. For fighting is the only way out of the political wilderness he finds himself in. Resigning would be seen as a tacit admission of guilt, and while it may be the honourable thing to do, the chances of this happening voluntarily appear slim.

The question is how Zuma should fight. He could either do it in the courts, taking Ngcuka on in a bid to clear his name. Or he could do it at a political level, by putting flesh to his comments that he suspects a political motive in the arms deal probe.

This would require proving an attempt is being made to oust Zuma, which would call for a highly damaging public battle. The deputy president's insight into, and knowledge of, the party and its members should not be underestimated.

The best the ANC can do is persuade Zuma to hold off on any such action until after the election. This is not ideal. It means the ANC will give its opponents, particularly the Democratic Alliance, a powerful weapon to fight with.

Zuma, however, is an important vote catcher for the ANC, having widespread support at grassroots level, and he is a pivotal unifying force within the party. There is no easy solution to this deadly conundrum. And even with deft handling, the party's leaders may be unable to avoid an even bloodier battle that will threaten to split the ANC down the middle.

With acknowledgements to Mr Chalmers and the Business Day.