Despite arms deal corruption claims, deputy president's influence in ANC makes it unlikely he will be ousted

The stakes are high and rising as the furore over corruption allegations in the multibillion-rand weapons deal gains momentum.

Government's arms deal is the most hotly contested of the decisions taken to date by the African National Congress (ANC)-led government.

However, lately, amid allegations of bribery relating to Deputy President Jacob Zuma, the issue has taken on an even larger dimension. Increasingly, it is becoming about the fight for the post of deputy president.

With President Thabo Mbeki certain to serve his second term after next year's general election, the question is who he will pick to serve as his deputy. Until recently, the good money was on Zuma retaining his post. Despite sporadic speculation of poor relations between the two, Zuma is an old ally of Mbeki's with their relationship having been cemented in exile.

As ANC deputy president, he is the second most senior person in the party. Regarded as a father figure who embodies much of the cultural history of the organisation, he joined the party in 1959 at the tender age of 17 after attempting in vain to become a member since he had been just 14.

Zuma's insight into, and knowledge of, the party and its members should not be underestimated. The old saying knowledge is power certainly holds true here.

After being forced to leave Mozambique in January 1987 following considerable pressure on the Mozambican government by the PW Botha regime, he moved to the ANC head office in Lusaka, Zambia. Here, he was made head of underground structures and shortly thereafter chief of the intelligence department.

As head of intelligence, he developed a reputation as a strong strategist who liked to keep a low profile. Working behind the scenes, he is credited with tackling and often resolving many internal ANC problems, while more recently he has taken a leading role in conflict resolution on the African continent.

Perhaps his most important contribution domestically has been his ability to navigate the turbulent waters of KwaZulu-Natal politics, having done much of the background work which allowed for the earlier peace process between the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).

There is a perception in some circles that with Zuma having attained the deputy presidency largely by default after IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi turned it down Mbeki could seek to exit from the arrangement after the next general election.

It is generally foolhardy to attempt to predict Mbeki's choices, but at this stage so close to the election, there seems little for the president to gain from such a move, and much he could lose. There would be the risk of alienating the KwaZulu-Natal constituency by sidelining his Zulu deputy at an increasingly tense time in the relationship between the two parties, and also of dividing the ANC, given Zuma's seniority and popularity.

Further, the 2004-2009 period is sure to focus far more strongly on local delivery, an issue Zuma understands and is passionate about, having earlier driven government's rural development strategy. Critically, with his warmth, his ability to reach out to people and popularity among the ANC rank and file, he will prove to be an important ANC vote catcher ahead of next year's election and beyond.

And yet the allegations relating to Zuma's role in the arms deal put Mbeki in an invidious position. It is clear Zuma's political career will be cut short if arms deal corruption allegations stick. In other words, if Bulelani Ngcuka's Scorpions find direct evidence of bribery, after suggestions Zuma tried to elicit a R500000 bribe from French defence group Thales.

The allegations themselves are damaging, but are they sufficiently damaging to dislodge Zuma? It seems unlikely in the absence of any direct evidence. It should also not be forgotten that as deputy president, Mbeki presided over a special cabinet committee that oversaw the arms deal.

To date, he has defended Zuma, rejecting calls last year for his deputy to resign, saying they remained rumours until the legal process was completed.

And yet, just the prospect of a vacancy in the second most senior position in the country has led to a heated debate about potential candidates for the post. To date, five names are most often heard from within the current Cabinet, being Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Minerals and Energy Minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel and Agriculture Minister Thoko Didiza. Externally, the contenders who are most often mentioned include ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe, deputy secretary-general Sankie Mthembi-Mahanyele, government communications chief Joel Netshitenzhe, Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni and businessman Cyril Ramaphosa.

However, several notably Netshitenzhe, Ramaphosa, Motlanthe and at this stage Mthembi-Mahanyele have taken a back seat and are unlikely to put themselves in the running. Others, such as Didiza and Mlambo-Ngcuka, are seen to be rising stars and are likely to rather belong to the next generation of leaders.

If one uses party seniority as the benchmark in these decisions, the obvious successor would be national chairman Lekota. He is a great survivor, having come back from a series of setbacks when ousted as Free State premier in 1996, after quarrels with senior party officials.

However, Lekota's political career has been tarnished by scandal following his failure to disclose his petrol and wine farming business interests to Parliament.

Which leaves Dlamini-Zuma, Manuel and Mboweni. Dlamini-Zuma is most closely aligned to Mbeki's thinking while Manue l and Mboweni bring their prowess in dealing with SA's all-important economic profile.

However, ultimately, Jacob Zuma's ability to survive should never be underestimated. He retained his ANC deputy presidency at the 51st national conference in December after arms deal allegations had surfaced.

Unless the Scorpions unveil sensational new evidence which they have failed to do so far the odds are he will do the same with SA's secondhighest government post.

Chalmers is editor at large.

With acknowledgements to Robyn Chalmers and Business Day.