The longer this scandal drags on the greater the toll it will take on Mbeki's international standing

President Thabo Mbeki's public silence on the furore over corruption allegations levelled at the deputy president has drawn criticism from opposition parties that attribute it to his lack of leadership.

But more damaging to the country, its people and the president is the confused message about governance that is being sent to the region, the continent and the world at large at such a critical stage of the formation of the African Union and the evolution of other continental bodies.

Locally, there has been what appears to be a deliberate move to keep the president as far away from the scandal as possible.

Mbeki was on leave when the Scorpions filed the 45-page charge sheet against Durban businessman Schabir Shaik, in which Mbeki is mentioned, and since then he has largely been out of the country.

The president has previously stated he has no intention of intervening in the Scorpions investigation, saying only that he had urged Justice Minister Penuell Maduna to conclude the matter as soon as possible.

To date this has been the only real course of action open to the president. He could not be seen to be influencing the Scorpions as it would have opened the way for accusations of political interference in what was essentially a legal matter.

Although Mbeki has tried in Parliament to defend the integrity of the arms-acquisition process, his noninterventionist stance has been consistent. He has repeatedly expressed faith in the justice system and the constitution in particular. At the African National Congress (ANC) conference in December he said government would respond only if the prosecution authority found substance in the allegations and duly prosecuted Deputy President Jacob Zuma.

However, the question increasingly asked is can Mbeki maintain this stance as the political pressure rises after the surprising twist introduced at the weekend by national director of public prosecutions Bulelani Ngcuka?

Ngcuka's comment that the Scorpions would not prosecute Zuma despite having a prima facie case against him has put Zuma in political limbo, but it also left Mbeki in a difficult position. Given that the allegations of corruption against Zuma remain just allegations, Mbeki cannot ask him to resign. Even suggesting that his deputy stands down holds dangers for the president as it will raise the ire of Zuma's supporters within the ANC, and there are many. Any move to stand down would have to come solely from the deputy president, and the chances of that are slim as it could be seen as a tacit acknowledgement of guilt.

But in the absence of direction from Mbeki on how government plans to approach the scandal, the saga has taken on a life of its own. Already corridor talk has it that Zuma has been "set up", fuelled perhaps by Zuma's own insistence that there is a political motive behind the probe.

Depending on who is doing the talking, this is supposedly at the behest of Mbeki, Ngcuka, Maduna or any of a variety of the deputy president's enemies. Of course, this conspiracy theory presupposes there is no truth in the corruption allegations and that the Scorpions do not, in fact, have a prima facie case against him.

The clearest clue so far on the thinking of the land's top leaders was this week's comment in The Star by Joel Netshitenzhe, head of government communications.

Posing questions as to whether Zuma should resign as deputy president and whether Mbeki should take some sort of action, Netshitenzhe said the issue was a profound matter of culture and trust.

If government allowed a precedent to be set for senior leaders to resign when allegations were levelled at them it would undermine government's ability to function. Further, he said, it was necessary to trust Zuma and take him at his word.

This is another clear message that the president will not get involved in what the ANC describes as "an uncomfortable situation for the country". But the pressures on Mbeki to give some sort of direction should not be underestimated, for they take on an added dimension when considering his role on the continent.

Mbeki would obviously like to leave a legacy of having led an exemplary government in an African state with a cabinet team that "entrenched the principles of transparency, accountability and service". These words have become Mbeki's trademark. African leaders have become used to it as Mbeki has said it time and again in forums such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union.

But the endless criticism of the multimillion-rand arms deal and perceived corruption related to it, endanger his aspiration of leaving a legacy of unblemished leadership and being counted among his African heroes such as Ghana's visionary leader Nkwame Nkruma.

A hallmark of Mbeki's leadership has been his involvement in transforming the nature of economic relations between SA and its neighbours in the SADC region as well as on the continent. He pioneered transformation of the now defunct Organisation of African Unity into the African Union with a new economic vision captured in the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad).

At the same time he has spent a lot of time selling Nepad to the developed world with the intention of changing the global trading systems that favour the richest nations.

The Nepad document he drafted, which has been hailed internationally as a breath of fresh air from Africa, seeks to change the culture of governance in Africa. He has repeatedly argued that it cannot be business as usual in this continent when corruption and misrule plague governments and the people suffer from famine.

Africa had to turn the corner, and its leaders must strive to "entrench the principles of transparency, accountability and service".

Africa Institute of SA CEO Eddy Maloka believes that Mbeki's international image and hard work is not yet threatened by allegations of corruption surrounding Zuma. Maloka travelled around the continent recently, and found the people to be just as interested in the politics of Rwanda and Liberia. People were also following closely the events unfolding after the US-led war in Iraq and international terror campaigns in south and east Asian countries like India and North Korea.

Unless it is resolved swiftly, the Zuma saga is sure to pose a problem on the continent for Mbeki, who has relied on his deputy's credentials and credibility to continue mediating in Burundi. The parties involved in talks in Burundi have not used Zuma's political problems at home as an excuse to derail talks. But a drawn-out scandal could give them the opportunity to do so, possibly weakening the bargaining power of South Africans in their quest to forge peace.

Addressing a conference of ombudsmen and public protectors in Durban in 2000, Mbeki expressed the hope of exporting to Africa the culture of establishing independent institutions such as the Human Rights Commission, the Commission for Gender Equality, the auditor-general and public protector as state institutions that support a "constitutional democracy".

But SA may increasingly find that it no longer has the moral high ground when addressing its counterparts on the continent. The longer the scandal drags on the greater the toll it will take on Mbeki's international standing. And that, if nothing else, is a compelling argument for a swift end to be brought to this unsavoury chapter in this country's history.

Chalmers is editor at large. Radebe is chief political correspondent.

With acknowledgements to Robyn Chalmers, Hopewell Radebe and Business Day.