President Thabo Mbeki's position at the top of the African National Congress's (ANC's) national election list is not in doubt, but there are reservations about whether Jacob Zuma's deputy presidency should remain unchanged.

At the ANC's national list conference in Boksburg this weekend, regional delegates are expected to grapple with this matter.

They must decide whether a man who has been found to be unable to balance his cheque book and was investigated for soliciting a bribe should be remain in the second-most poweful office in the land.

However, political analyst Dr Dirk Kotze, of the University of SA, believes it is a given that Mbeki and Zuma will lead the national list.

But Mbeki will not necessarily pick his cabinet or appoint his deputy on the basis of popularity.

In fact, says Kotze, the top 200 names on the list will probably not differ from the membership of the party's national executive committee, with the exception of those already deployed into positions other than the National Assembly.

Zuma's popularity as a man representing the poor played out in provincial list processes and his name led the national lists of KwaZulu-Natal and Free State. The ANC's tripartite alliance partners, particularly the Congress of South African Trade Unions, have given Zuma overwhelming support .

Zuma's position was strengthened this week when Parliament's ethics committee exonerated him of failing to declare gifts.

While Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota and Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma have been proposed as possible contenders for the deputy presidency, it is hard to speculate whether Mbeki will be swayed by ANC members' preferences. However, if Mbeki chose to replace Zuma, analysts say he could face a dilemma as members would interpret this as an indictment of Zuma's integrity.

The only province to introduce a new candidate as a wild card in the deputy presidential race was Limpopo, which named its chairman and premier, Ngoako Ramatlhodi, for the position.

Another challenge facing delegates to the list conference is whose names should fall in the red zone after the 60% mark of the 400 seats in the National Assembly. This is the likely cut-off point depending on whether the ANC increases or decreases its electoral support.

Even if the party wins a twothirds majority of seats, the conference will have to juggle with candidates of stature who may be left out. The challenge is even greater as the national list committee has been given the task of identifying young talent to be introduced to parliament for nurturing .

The ANC has reiterated its position that the national list committee will have the final say after the list conference, based on a "balance of experience, gender representation and racial demographics", spokesman for the committee, Mpho Lekgoro, said.

At the conference, the committee will make a short motivation for a draft list and explain the process and the criteria to shortlist candidates. Provinces will be allowed time to lobby for candidates in caucuses and names will be put to the house for approval.

If a prolonged argument about a candidate ensues , it will be put to the vote in a show of hands. A name may only be substituted with 60% of the house's support.

Objections and appeals by ANC structures can be made until December 5. After appeals have been considered, the list committee will submit its recommendations and lists to the ANC national executive committee by December 15, when a final list will be adopted. This will be made public at a later stage.

With acknowledgements to Hopewell Radebe and the Business Day.