It started out looking as though it would be a sideshow in the bigger succession battle at the heart of the fight between Deputy President Jacob Zuma, former transport minister Mac Maharaj and the Shaik brothers on the one hand, and prosecutions chief Bulelani Ngcuka and Justice Minister Penuell Maduna on the other.

And certainly, it is an opportunistic distraction from the main issue of whether or not Zuma is corrupt.

However, there are growing signs Maharaj and former Umkhonto we Sizwe military operative Mo Shaik have been outplayed in a larger political game.

Few would contend that Ngcuka won the first round in the Hefer commission of inquiry, established by President Thabo Mbeki to probe allegations that Ngcuka spied for the apartheid government. Several witnesses portrayed a picture of Maharaj and Shaik frantically seeking evidence to support the contention that Ngcuka was either spy RS452, or a spy operating under another name.

Unless the two men come up with compelling evidence in coming weeks they may well be marginalised by the African National Congress (ANC) and its leaders. They stand to be seen as having attempted to take down a colleague using the most nefarious of methods.

Many commentators have queried Mbeki's decision to go the route of a commission of inquiry to get to the bottom of the spy allegations. As head of the ANC and of government, Mbeki would have a fairly good idea of whether or not Ngcuka was an apartheid spy. Presumably, he decided to call the bluff of the accusers. It is a dangerous time for Maharaj and Shaik.

Of greater import is the effect on Zuma of the Bloemfontein goings-on. Zuma has been gaining ground ever since Ngcuka's disastrous comment that the Scorpions had prima facie evidence against him but had opted not to prosecute.

The strategy may have been to force Zuma to resign. If so, it backfired badly. Zuma has taken to the trenches, mustering support in the influential trade union movement and in the provinces.

Zuma had overwhelming support at the recent Congress of South African Trade Unions congress. And he topped the Free State's ANC party nominations list.

All of which must concern ANC leaders who see the fight for succession escalating out of control.

Zuma has been careful too not to be directly associated with the spy allegations against Ngcuka. While there is a general assumption that Maharaj and Shaik are associated with Zuma, not a single comment has emanated directly from the deputy president on the issue.

The ANC has argued there is no basis for Zuma to testify before the Hefer commission, saying the party has no records relevant to the inquiry's brief.

This may be a move by ANC leaders to tone down the public relations nightmare that has engulfed the party in recent months. It may be that Zuma does not wish to become embroiled in the increasingly embarrassing spy allegations, particularly since human rights lawyer Vanessa Brereton confessed to being spy RS452.

It is probably both and then some, but it is inappropriate for the ANC to try to dictate terms to the commission, particularly as it was set up by Mbeki. All the party has done is given an impression of indecisive leadership.

This may work in Zuma's favour. Most things seem to these days. For this is not a man who has decided to take a back seat. This is a man who is fighting for his political life. And the battle is far from over.

With acknowledgements to Chalmers and the Business Day.