The nominations lists of ANC candidates to represent the party in provincial and national government after next year's general election reveal some interesting choices.

The nominations conference has given insight into what ordinary ANC members think of certain individuals and leaders. It is evident from the nominations lists that those who remain loyal to the ANC have insulated themselves from any public criticism their leaders get.

While some names put forward by party structures represent a mixed bag of choices by grassroot members, others on the lists raise eyebrows.

Though the lists are not a true reflection of who is likely to make it to Parliament or provincial legislatures, they nonetheless represent what many believe is the view of ordinary members about who they would like to see represent them in government.

The lists suggest that the ANC's political centre is not necessarily reflecting the views of members in its lower ranks.

As the nominations process got under way, there was little doubt that attention would be focused on those ANC leaders who have fallen out of favour with the public because of alleged wrongdoing. Names such as those of former ANC chief whip Tony Yengeni and Winnie Madikizela-Mandela spring to mind, now joined by the protagonists in the arms-deal scandal and its offspring, the Hefer commission.

The nomination of Scorpions boss Bulelani Ngcuka, and the good showing of Deputy President Jacob Zuma, indicates that although they have slugged it out in public, they remain popular at grassroot level.

It seems that the high-level investigation of Ngcuka, ordered by President Thabo Mbeki, has done little to dent his public image and may even have bolstered his standing in the ANC.

The spy allegations against Ngcuka have raised many other questions within the ANC. One is about the supposed undeclared feud between the president and former transport minister Mac Maharaj. Many believe that Mbeki's supporters have not forgiven Maharaj for his abrupt decision not to serve in the Mbeki government after Nelson Mandela's presidency. This leads to the last bit of speculation: that the government and ANC's decision to deny Maharaj access to intelligence documents stems from the above.

It appears that ordinary ANC members and structures have been motivated by this background to rally behind Ngcuka, while at the same time holding serious reservations about his probe into Zuma. Their support for Ngcuka may also stem from the way his lawyers appear to have turned the focus away from him and on to his main accusers - Maharaj and Mo Shaik, a senior director in the department of foreign affairs.

Zuma's popularity in the nominations is baffling as the allegations against him relate to his conduct in a democratic government. Although the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) decided not to charge Zuma for allegedly soliciting a R500 000 bribe, the NPA's subsequent pronouncement that there was a prima facie case puzzled many people.

If the ANC's nominations lists are anything to go by, they suggest that the allegations of bribery against Zuma are not strong enough, at least not at grassroot level, to warrant his exclusion from public office.

They further suggest that the thinking in the ANC is that the man should be considered fallible, as with any other citizen, and his years of political sacrifice should not be written off as a result of an allegation.

Zuma's public showing in two provinces where he was the top nominee, ahead of Mbeki, speaks volumes about the thinking in the two areas. In KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma topped the list, leaving Mbeki trailing at number eight; in the Free State he was again top, while the president came fourth.

These nominations tell us something about what ordinary ANC members think of the president and his deputy.

Zuma's showing in the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal raises the question of whether Mbeki can conveniently say he has a full grip on the ANC as a whole. Some may dismiss this as insignificant, but there are those in the party structures who feel that the nomination tells us something. Could this be a sign that Mbeki's standing within certain ANC structures is beginning to slip while Zuma's standing continues to climb? And, significantly, whether Zuma would now reconsider his decision not to run for the ANC presidency.

The ANC's nominations leave little doubt that Zuma may be forced to reconsider his decision not to stand for the presidency of the party at its national congress in 2007. With the party still undecided as to who is likely to become Mbeki's successor, Zuma's supporters may turn up the heat and encourage him to run. It is becoming clearer each day that Zuma, as the most senior party leader after Mbeki, is unlikely to bow out of office without a fight.

It seems the ANC's structures may be taking their cue from party secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe, who suggested to me recently that "the political agenda around Zuma is not premised on charging and convicting him, but at casting serious doubt around his profile, hoping that this will destroy him in the eyes of those who want to believe in the plot".

Motlanthe suggested the whole exercise was "an attempt to destroy Zuma's political standing. It is not about corruption. The fact that the man is poor and running an overdraft would not compel us to abandon him."

With acknowledgements to Jimmy Seepe and the City Press.