Cape Town - Defence analysts last week blamed the apparently rushed and even "secretive" deal by government late last year to buy into the new Airbus A400M project on a belated realisation of the full implications of the increased military and humanitarian role South Africa has to play in Africa.

But the analysts said it was unlikely the government would have to start paying for the eight to 11 new cargo carriers for a few years as they were still in the design stage with local manufacturers Aerosud and Denel involved in some of the design work.

The local manufacturers would also make parts for the new aircraft which was due off the production line in France in about two years' time.

The deal would cost South Africa between €834 million and €1.2 billion (R9.5 billion), depending on the number of aircraft bought. This will be paid off over 17 years.

The analysts said that the importance of stepping up military cargo airlift capacity had been "overlooked" because of shrinking military budgets in the post-apartheid era. Most defence strategists had been resigned to a minimalist role on the continent.

Not only were there other, more pressing socioeconomic priorities at home, but many former anti-apartheid activists had been strongly lobbying for the military, and the airforce in particular, to limit their regional outreach.  

"But it has become increasingly clear that many countries want our help in the region and in Africa as a whole, and we have to increase our cargo airlift capacity," said one analyst.

The dilemma was that while this could be done using the existing ageing fleet of Hercules C130 aircraft, they would not last beyond 2015.

They would also become increasingly unable to meet the demand for moving troops, portable ambulances, helicopters and other military hardware and humanitarian aid to trouble spots where South Africa was playing an aid and peacekeeping role.

The gap could be met by chartering cargo aircraft, but this had negative security and safety implications.

At the same time, Airbus, which had been lobbying government for some years to get involved in its new A400M project, "lost patience and went public" in a bid to get government to make a decision, the analysts said.

Airbus said it wanted a decision from government before the end of 2004, after which South Africa would have to line up to buy less suitable and/or more expensive cargo aircraft from other suppliers.

After weighing up all the options, the government went ahead and signed the deal with Airbus just before the close of business in 2004 despite last-minute but abortive legal bids by anti-arms activists to stop the deal.

With acknowledgements to Lynda Loxton and the Business Report.