Senior African National Congress (ANC) officials are proposing secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe as the party's next president, as factions in the ANC brace themselves for the political fallout from the Schabir Shaik fraud and corruption trial.

Sources in the party connected to the informal campaign said Motlanthe is seen as the most suitable candidate to oppose Deputy President Jacob Zuma — also the ANC's deputy president — for the party's presidency should Zuma survive the Shaik trial and run for the party presidency at the ANC's next national conference in 2007.

Sources said having Motlanthe as a candidate would reduce the need for President Thabo Mbeki to stand again in 2007 as ANC president, a move likely to create tension as it would mean Mbeki's five-year term as ANC president would overlap with that of whoever would replace him as the country's president in 2009.

Motlanthe, described by an executive member of the ANC as a "repository of the ANC's traditions and values", is held in high esteem in the party and enjoys the support of ANC rank and file.

Asked about the campaign yesterday, Motlanthe said: "I wouldn't know about that."

He said this was "useless speculation" as there was an ANC national conference every five years to elect new leaders.

"I am not inclined to go to Parliament or to government. I'm more at home in the ANC," Motlanthe said.

Zuma, while not charged with any crime, is at the centre of Shaik's trial and his political future and ambitions are likely to be determined by the outcome.

A government official associated with the pro-Motlanthe campaign said at the weekend that the campaign did not stem solely from question marks over Zuma's integrity.

The official said there were also concerns in the ANC about Zuma's suitability to lead the ANC and manage Africa's biggest economy.

The official, who declined to be named, said: "The world is globalising at a rapid pace and SA needs a president who has the savvy to understand that and to articulate SA's position in the world."

A Limpopo businessman connected to the ANC said Zuma's perceived lack of sophistication was always likely to count against him. "But his chances are worse now that he has been compromised by the Shaik trial," said the businessman.

He said Zuma was likely to become the first deputy president of the ANC not to become party president.

The pro-Motlanthe campaign is said to draw strong support from the provinces, while Zuma enjoys the support of the vocal but marginalised ANC Youth League.

A premier, who declined to be named, said: "There is anxiety within the ANC about the reality of Mbeki not being there as SA's president after 2009."

However, the premier said there would be no crisis when Mbeki stepped down.

"I don't think there will be a crisis of leadership when Mbeki goes," he said.

Analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said the ANC was keen to avoid the creation of "two centres of power" and that the election of someone such as Motlanthe as ANC president was likely to help the party avoid that.

With acknowledgements to Jacob Dlamini and the Business Day.