Before or on May 30, Judge Hilary Squires will deliver his judgement in the Schabir Shaik corruption trial, a key hurdle in Jacob Zuma's race to become the next president.

If Zuma had not emerged as a key figure in the trial, he would have been a shoo-in as the next president.

The African National Congress is keen to avoid a divisive succession battle, but one leader said : "His fate will be determined by the outcome of the case. If the judgement is damaging, we cannot ignore that." A conviction in the case, which is by no means impossible, could trigger corruption charges against Zuma.

But even if the deputy president is not charged, he may be mortally damaged. If Judge Squires finds his relationship with Shaik to be corrupt, and that he solicited a bribe from Thompson CSF through Shaik, he will be indelibly tainted by implication.

Can South Africa afford to have a president - who must rub shoulders with the world's great and good and lead by example - with such unresolved sleaze in his background? Would not the opposition parties make constant capital out of it? How would the world's press react?

The trial has also shed a damning light on Zuma's financial and administrative skills - it is common cause that Shaik funded him to the tune of more that R1-million, that he took largesse from other benefactors, and that his cheques regularly bounced. How could someone so incapable of managing his own finances oversee South Africa's macro-economy?

There are also fears that the polarising effect of the trial could influence Zuma's presidential style. Said one ANC national executive committee member who is a solid supporter : "My only concern is that he will govern the country on the basis of revenge by surrounding himself with loyalists. Will he be big enough to choose a team purely geared towards managing the economy?"

The solidarity of Zuma's support in the tripartite alliance should not be taken at face value. Said a business-aligned NEC ANC member : "There are some Zuma sympathisers, but the majority hold the contrary view are keeping their heads down …Those who support Zuma are looking for their pound of flesh and calculating what they are likely to extract as reward when he becomes president.

"But most businesspeople are asking themselves whether the man is fit to be president. They are concerned about the kind of economic environment that would arise if the takes the reins."

With acknowledgements to Vicki Robison, Rapule Tabane and the Mail & Guardian.