Comment

President Thabo Mbeki - who delivered yet another rousing State of the Nation address in parliament on Friday - has over the years copped some withering criticism for the way he has led our diverse country with its multitude of complex challenges and mouth-watering opportunities.

Mbeki's dogged denial about the nature, scope and cause of the greatest public health crisis in the history of our country and our continent will prove to be massively costly in terms of loss of life, the alleviation of avoidable suffering and the unnecessary dramatic reduction in citizens' productivity.

Also damaging could be the way he has set about undermining his very own brainchild, the New Partnership for Africa's Development, by routinely shielding and siding with leaders like Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe, whose repeated gross human rights violations and anti-democratic practices serve to mock the core principles on which the Nepad project rests.

Other critics have wanted to take issue with the president's leadership style, seen variously as divisive, control-freaky, hyper-sensitive, paranoid and so race-obsessed that colour-coding could once again become a key organising feature of our national life.

But for all these - and other - misgivings that critics might harbour about Mbeki's captaincy of the ship of state, most observers would acknowledge that he has shown outstanding leadership where it matters most: the overall management of the economy.

Quibbles aside, Mbeki and his team had a plan - and the vision and discipline to execute it. At a time when the expectations of the newly enfranchised and long-denied electorate were soaring, Mbeki steadfastly refused to succumb to populist demands for instant gratification.

Further massive borrowing or the wholesale printing of money would have simply plunged the country into a deeper hole further down the line. After years of careful prioritisation and prudent spending, the country has been able to extricate itself from a potentially ruinous debt trap.

After having the courage and confidence to administer tough medicine, we are now entering an era where the government has greater latitude for discretionary spending and much-needed investment in infrastructure.

Finance Minister Trevor Manuel and his hard-nosed treasury team have often been accorded the lion's share of plaudits for the judicious and nuanced management of the economy during the difficult transition period.

But the ultimate credit belongs to Mbeki, the trained economist, who has orchestrated the ambitious and politically risky plan and seen it come together.

All of which leads both South Africans and foreign investors to wonder: What happens when Mbeki goes?

Which brings us four-square into the presidential succession debate that has been raging with undiminished intensity in recent months, despite the increasingly desperate efforts by Luthuli House to put a cap on what it regards as an internal private matter.

Under routine circumstances and in terms of normal ANC protocols, Deputy President Jacob Zuma would pretty much be a shoe-in for the job. But just how routine and normal is the environment in which the front-runner currently finds himself?

While Zuma's lawyers have understandably been keeping a close watching brief at the marathon Schabir Shaik bribery and corruption trial, the deputy president has not been charged or even been asked to appear as a witness. So he has not had the opportunity to put his side of the story in court.

But the indictment compiled by the Scorpions against Zuma's "financial adviser" and the evidence that has been led so far at the trial does invite a welter of questions. These relate to both his judgment and his suitability for the job of running a country - let alone giving shape and direction to economic policy.

Can South Africa entrust the complex and demanding task of charting economic strategy to someone with a personal financial record peppered with unpaid debit orders, bounced cheques and serial loan defaults?

Could unscrupulous individuals with questionable motives be rubbing their hands in anticipation because they are under the impression, however mistaken, that we might end up with a leader open to the highest bidder?

Nobody would want to deny the former ANC intelligence boss his place in the sun and a cushy job.

But make it a ceremonial post, and appoint someone other than Shaik to keep a close eye on the purse strings.

With acknowledgements to Anthony Johnson and the Cape Times.