Opinion & Analysis

The controversial support by the Cosatu central committee for sacked former deputy president Jacob Zuma was not unanimous. But, in the spirit of democratic centralism, the federation will speak publicly with one voice.

The feelings of a significant minority range from frustrated annoyance to deep concern. "It must be the most stupid thing we've ever done," a delegate says.

"This could be the beginning of the end of Cosatu," another notes. A third, the sole dissident voice in his union's delegation, comments that the federation appears to have "shot itself in both feet".

Similar comments have been aired by several political commentators, most of whom expressed surprise at Cosatu's revised attitude towards Zuma.

The surprise was warranted. To demand that President Thabo Mbeki reinstate Zuma as his deputy was at best naive; to insist that Mbeki drop criminal charges of corruption against his former deputy is clearly unconstitutional, illegal and therefore verges, at best, on the inane.

At least the earlier position adopted by the smaller central executive committee had the merit of sounding reasonable. It called for Zuma not to be prejudged and to be given his day in court, although it went on to pledge support for him as the next president of South Africa.

The new demands by the central committee comprising the office bearers of affiliated unions put Cosatu in an invidious position: they clearly cannot be met within a liberal parliamentary democracy and Cosatu cannot afford to appear both foolish and powerless.

But what can the federation do when - not if - its demands are ignored?

The suggestion that it might "do a Jiyane" and follow last week's example of Inkatha Freedom Party chairman Ziba Jiyane and break away to form a new political party behind the figurehead of Zuma does not seem likely. At least, not at this stage.

But this, along with the Cosatu central committee decision, is also a factor in a complex web of political manoeuvring and blunders, fuelled by widespread popular resentment about government policies on the one hand and by the desire to gain or hold on to political power and patronage on the other.

What we are now witnessing is the broad church of the ANC-led alliance at its most fractious. The papered-over ideological schisms and several old scores from the past are starting to surface.

This was probably inevitable given the recent township protests and the strikes that have indicated clearly the creation of a political vacuum available to a popular alternative to the ANC. Or, indeed, to an ANC perceived to have changed direction.

Cosatu and the SA Communist Party (SACP), whose members are heavily represented in the federation's leadership, are committed to changing the course of the ANC. And to have Zuma as president is seen as one way of ensuring this.

But there is also a "plan B". This was clearly outlined at the 1997 Cosatu congress when the federation voted to accept the SACP as "the workers' party", effectively an alternative in waiting.

However, this plan B is now threatened by the possible emergence of the ironically Cosatu-initiated and mass-based anti-poverty, pro-jobs alliance. Such an alliance, in opposition to government's perceived anti-worker policies, could have the potential to develop into an independent political alternative.

Neither the government nor the SACP and Cosatu would favour such a development. So Mbeki reiterates the government's commitment to the principles of the Freedom Charter, while Cosatu and the SACP promote Zuma as the future purveyor of pro-worker policies.

Yet Zuma, throughout his years in office, never aligned himself with even mild criticism of the macroeconomic policies that are at the root of much of the opposition now to Mbeki.

But over the past two years the former deputy president has assiduously cultivated the union movement. Stressing his humble origins, he has made a point of speaking at union gatherings.

"Whatever else Jacob Zuma may be, he is an incredibly astute politician," says a Cosatu union general secretary who expresses concern about the threat of fragmentation in the union movement.

He also agrees that Zuma achieved his virtual martyr status among many of his supporters because of an initial blunder by the former director of public prosecutions, Bulelani Ngcuka, who announced that a prima facie case of corruption existed against Zuma, but that Zuma would not be prosecuted because the case was unwinnable.

As several legal experts have pointed out, even a first-year law student would know that such a statement was totally unacceptable, being the equivalent of ascribing guilt without the benefit of legal process.

Whether this was the result of a tactical political error or merely an uncharacteristic and ill-considered slip of the tongue by a highly qualified advocate is irrelevant: it was a blunder that provided the impetus for a cult of personality that is now striving to fill a vacuum in the South African political environment.

Whether Ngcuka's blunder turns out to be more or less damaging than the decision on Zuma by the Cosatu central committee this week will probably be debated for years.

With acknowledgements to Terry Bell and the Business Report.