Publication: Cape Times Issued: Date: 2005-10-19 Reporter: Allister Sparks Reporter: Reporter:

Fight for ANC's Soul has Begun

 

Publication 

Cape Times
Date 2005-10-19

Reporter

Allister Sparks

Web Link

www.capetimes.co.za

 

The left is exploiting Mbeki's indecision

After more than a decade of basking in global admiration for our remarkable transformation from a troubled past, South Africa suddenly faces the prospect of political instability.

I don't want to sound alarmist *1, but it would be a mistake to under-estimate the seriousness of the Jacob Zuma crisis.

Revolutions have a way of consuming their own children. Thus in France the Girondins were ousted by the Jacobins, and in Russia the Kadets and then the Mencheviks by the Bolsheviks.

Ours was not a classical revolution, of course, but a negotiated one. Nevertheless, some of the same political dynamics apply, as those on the left find it expedient to accuse the moderates of betraying the revolution *2, of neglecting the poor and the dispossessed.

I recall the late Joe Slovo once saying to me, only half in jest: "I know you want the revolution to stop at February, but I'm hoping for October. One day there'll be a struggle for the soul of the ANC."

That day is here, and the left wing of the ANC alliance has seized on Zuma as its champion to pursue its struggle for the ANC's soul.

Not that he has ever shown himself to be an ideological leftist, but he is a bitter man who has shown himself capable of unleashing a populist campaign of great potency. It is a campaign that could cause great damage, both politically and economically.

Strong leadership is needed to bring the situation under control, but it is not evident. President Thabo Mbeki is isolated within his own party.

The ANC appears confused and helpless, trying simultaneously to show united support for Zuma while alarmed at his populism. It is transfixed by its own ambiguity.

I joined the crowd outside the Durban Magistrate's Court last week and was startled by its vehemence - the burning of Mbeki's effigy on the T-shirts, the language of contempt for him that I heard, the booing of provincial Premier S'bu Ndebele, who is perceived as an Mbeki ally, and the insults, stones and bottles of urine *3 hurled at the police.

I was even more startled by the vehemence of the speeches by Cosatu's Zwelinzima Vavi, the Communist Party's Blade Nzimande, the ANC Youth League's Fikile Mbalula, and Zuma himself; at the way the Scorpions and the judiciary were attacked and equated with the apartheid era in a transparent attempt to discredit and delegitimise them ahead of Zuma's trial, so that even if he is convicted the verdict can be dismissed as illegitimate.

A poster that appeared ubiquitously in the crowd set the tone. "Squires guilty of maladministration - Zuma not guilty", it proclaimed, thus dismissing Judge Hilary Squires's finding in the Shabir (sic) Shaik trial that there was a "generally corrupt relationship" between Shaik and Zuma.

All this despite the "truce" declared by the ANC's National Executive Committee at its crisis meeting last month, in which Zuma as well as Mbeki pledged not only to make peace themselves, but to respect the rule of law, protect state institutions from political attack, promote the fight against corruption, and keep their supporters in check.

The fight against corruption could not have been more thoroughly negated. The whole thrust of the demonstration was that Zuma is innocent even if found guilty; that he is not going to get a fair trial; that the courts are part of a political conspiracy.

That, together with the assault on the Scorpions, our only effective corruption busters, at both the Zuma rally and the Khampepe Commission, gave the impression of a coordinated campaign to proclaim corruption OK. Hands off it!

Certainly, it appeared that way to the members of the foreign media who were present, and no doubt to many foreign investors. It would be difficult to imagine anything more likely to spook investors than the combined impression of populist politics and a tolerance of corruption.

I wondered whether Vavi gave this even a passing thought when he made his own contribution to that impression in a passionate speech to the rally. Cosatu members would be the first to suffer from an alarmed flight of investment capital and a resultant shrinkage of the economy.

Certainly most members of the crowd appeared not to have thought about it. None that I spoke to had the slightest sense that their support for Zuma, and their demand that the charges against him be dropped, implied a condoning of corruption. To them Zuma is the innocent victim of a political conspiracy - full stop.

Questions about Shaik's acceptance of bribes on Zuma's behalf met with incomprehension, or at most with the rejoinder that all the struggle heroes, including Nelson Mandela, accepted help from businessmen because they had nothing when they returned home from exile or prison.

The distinction between accepting financial help from businessmen and using one's political office to grant contractual favours in return was not made.

It must be said, though, that many of the factors aggravating this crisis and compounding Mbeki's dilemma are of his own making. Beginning with his chronic inability to manage damage control. As my articles have noted repeatedly, the only effective way to limit the damage flowing from a scandal is to bring out all the facts, fast, and get it over and done with *2 as quickly as possible.

The worst way, which most governments including our own follow, is to try to cover up or limit the investigation. That results in the scandal suppurating, a running sore that bleeds on for years with periodic new revelations, and eventually erupting as a major infection of the whole body politic.

Watergate, Infogate and Armsgate are classic examples. Oilgate is still to follow, mark my words.

Had the arms deal scandal been investigated fully and frankly when it first hit the headlines seven years ago, this crisis would never have reached these proportions. Zuma's role would have been either exposed or explained long ago.

Nor is that Mbeki's only contribution to worsening this crisis. His aloofness and general remote-ness from his alliance partners and the masses of ordinary people has caused irritation and presented Zuma with the populist opportunity he is now exploiting.

Add to that Mbeki's centralising of power in the presidency and you have the core of the problem. Not only has this caused resentment in the alliance and beyond, it has also weakened the institutional structures of the ANC. Local branches, stripped of meaningful influence, have atrophied.

It is the local branch leaders who quell a party revolt like this one, who explain issues and impose discipline right down at grassroots level. But they are not there, their branches are not sufficiently active. The grassroots have fallen into neglect - and disaffection.

What is to be done? Someone needs to step forward to save the movement from itself, and perhaps someone will before the national conference of 2007, which will determine the future of the ANC and the country.

The ANC is not short of strong and capable people, some of whom have moved to the sidelines because of conflicts with Mbeki. Their party and their country may yet need them.


Sparks is a veteran journalist and political commentator.

Met erkenning aan Allister Sparks en Cape Times.


*1  It's not alarmist; when the country is under threat of being burnt down, it's understatement.

*2  The Counter-Revolutionaries.

*3  That stage of the revolution when "piss off" just isn't strong enough.

*4  Regarding the Arms Deal, we've been saying that for six years - get the SIU (prerogative of the President) on it, get a Judicial Commission of Enquiry (prerogative of the President) on it - but no - why?

Because in this case, the whole truth does not suit the President.

Zuma knows that, Mo knows that, Chippy knows that.