Publication	The Star
Date	2005-10-28
Reporter	Moshoeshoe Monare
Web Link	www.thestar.co.za

From a distance, the melody in the chant, "uZuma uyinyamazane, upresident" (Zuma you are a beast *1 you are the president) sounds harmonious and the tripartite mass choir seems rhythmically in tune.

But beneath the chorus lies an ear-splitting, sharp dissonance, and a critically divided choir mastership.

While on the ground the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the ANC Youth League are in unison in their support for former deputy president Jacob Zuma, at leadership level the crisis is splitting these organisations as much as it rips the ANC apart.

Mbeki's only hope and support is in the tight management of the party and the country.

The leadership of Zuma supporters appears united, firm and resolute on television, at rallies, marches and other public forums, but behind the closed doors lies a cacophony of dissenting voices.

This leadership is diluted by what could be construed as President Thabo Mbeki supporters or the so-called third dimension that sees the current division in the ANC as a lovers' tiff that doesn't warrant a third-party intervention.

A sprinkle of Mbeki support in Cosatu, the SACP and to a lesser extent in the ANC Youth League, has managed to neutralise and at times paralyse crucial decisions that could have solidified the Zuma position.

Mbeki has managed to strike a compromise and corner Zuma as a result of this diluted support within the tripartite alliance.

This was clear at the alliance ten-a-side meeting when the SACP delegation was visibly divided between the fiery secretary-general, Blade Nzimande, and his deputy, Jeremy Cronin.

Cronin's composed tone has served as a modifier of what could have been a combative and militant Nzimande approach.

In one SACP politburo meeting, Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils is said to have said as much as the party can support Zuma materially, this must not be translated into a political support.

Some senior SACP leaders don't trust their chairperson Charles Nqakula and central committee member Sydney Mufamadi, because the two - who are both in the Mbeki cabinet - have not detached themselves from their government roles.

While the SACP's following is fractious, the party serves as a think-tank and intellectual hub for Cosatu, whose weapon is the working mass machinery.

The mistrust, divisions and suspicion within Cosatu leadership over Zuma is concealed and face-less, because of the intimidating, ferocious dominance of pro-Zuma supporters.

When Cosatu took a decision to support Zuma financially, some senior leaders were anonymously questioning Zuma's disingenuous motives, alleging that he was silent when the ANC labelled them ultra-leftists in 2002.

Cosatu's central committee's call for the withdrawal of corruption charges and reinstatement of Zuma as the country's deputy president was not unanimous.

In the ANC Youth League, the simmering tensions were swiftly squashed. Its president, Fikile Mbalula, was trembling with fear in Paris when he heard that his deputy, Reuben Mohlaloga, had rebelled and challenged his position on the two centres of power debate.

The Eastern Cape ANCYL's provincial executive, which declared it would defend Mbeki at all costs, threatened that anyone touching Mbeki's integrity would meet the wrath of the province's youth.

Even though Mohlaloga and Eastern Cape chairperson Thabo Mdukizwa and secretary Thabo Makiwane have been suspended, their rebellion has a potential splitting effect in the league.

However, the pro-Mbeki leaders in the SACP, Cosatu and the Youth League will not dream of putting their position across to the followers of these organisations, or risk being devoured by Zuma's mass following.

On the other side, no one but the ANC Women's League would lead a tune about Mbeki, their favourite being uMbeki uphethe idemocracy ngesandla (Mbeki is holding democracy in his hands).

Mbeki, as a leading embodiment of the ANC government, has his own support, demonstrated during his election trail last year.

But on the Zuma crisis, Mbeki's only hope and support is in the tight management of the party and the country as in the national executive committee (NEC), the national working committee (NWC) and the cabinet and provincial councils.

Allegiance by ministers, premiers, mayors, councillors, senior civil servants and managers have been interpreted as patronage in return for cabinet and other key positions in government, the diplomatic corps and parastatals.

The logic relied on is that 27 of the 60-member NEC were appointed by Mbeki as either ministers or deputy ministers, three are serving premiers, two are executive mayors, two key directors-general in his office and others are former presidential appointees in government.

Only about a dozen are either on the fence, pro-Zuma supporters or what Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi calls the walking wounded who - like Ngoako Ramathlodi, Tony Yengeni, Mathews Phosa and Enoch Godongwana - feel they were purged by Mbeki.

Except for Max Sisulu, all the directly elected members of the NWC are either in cabinet or government, but with few such as Social Development Minister Zola Skweyiya regarded as outspoken and independent.

Mbeki's prerogative to appoint cabinet, premiers and executive mayors is an advantage to ensure loyalty and fortify his fortress.

Blind loyalty for personal and political benefit has influenced decisions and positions adopted by the ANC executives in government.

This precipitated a heated debate at the ANC's national general council (NGC) about the 1997 Mafikeng recommendation for the president of the ANC to appoint premiers and executive mayors. Delegates wanted to strip Mbeki of this power.

NGC delegates, mainly Zuma supporters, felt that there was lack of independence and diversity because leaders think of their salaries first, thus compromising their constituency.

It was no coincidence that Gauteng Premier Mbhazima Shilowa called provincial chairpersons at the NGC to stage-manage the last day to save the president from taking more pounding from angry delegates, according to sources.

The most disliked premier by his own people, KwaZulu Natal's Sbu Ndebele, ingratiatingly suggested that Mbeki should go for a third ANC presidential term.

Sceptics say Mbeki does not have support at ANC grassroots, but his trusted allies have won most of the provincial leadership in the last conferences.

In Mpumalanga, accusations of promises of government posts and tenders were doing the rounds after Thabang Makwetla won the provincial leadership - but they were just that, mere accusations and rumours.

Cynics also charge that the same leaders, such as Ndebele, Makwetla and Shilowa, had lost control after the NGC.

In the civil service the divisions are also deep.

The recent purging of National Intelligence Agency director-general Billy Masetlha, his deputy director-general Gibson Njenje and Bob Mhlanga appears to be testimony of Mbeki reinforcing his citadel.

But the same accusation could be levelled against Zuma. He is also buttressing his garrison by using his loyalists in the state's employ.

The two clear centres of power - between Mbeki's grip on the management of the ANC Inc and as CEO of the RSA and Zuma's mass power - will be tested at the ANC's conference in 2007, assuming Zuma will still be singing Umshini wami (my machine gun).

The show (conference) will indeed not be over until the fat lady sings.

The great Zuma - Mbeki divide

ANC

The organisation's initial lack of clear direction in handling the Zuma issue deepened the crisis. Until the NGC, the NEC never discussed the matter while he was guillotined by his comrade in government. The ANC's statement during the Schabir Shaik trial and subsequent charging of Zuma were ambiguous. Delegates at the NGC forced it to provide clear support and take a firm public position.

Key figures

Kgalema Motlanthe

He is perceived as a principled man who has always called for a reconciliatory restraint between Mbeki and Zuma. But the high stakes in the crisis have forced his balancing scale to swing toward defending Zuma.

While still commanding respect in both camps, those in the Mbeki circles perceive him as a threat to their ambitions and career.

Joel Netshitenzhe

His friendship with Mbeki is rooted in their exile days when both were aides to ANC president Oliver Tambo. The unassuming strategist has vehemently defended Mbeki. Although revered for his intellectual prowess, he has attracted resentment from the Zuma camp.

COSATU

The pro-Zuma support is immense and dominating, with a few anonymous dissenters.

The most crucial and solid support comes from the majority of the affiliates. This was demonstrated at the central committee conference in August.

Cosatu believes Zuma's corruption charges are trumped up to thwart his chances of becoming the next president.

Key figures

Zwelinzima Vavi: General Secretary

He is the closest to Zuma in the federation.

He has gone to the extent of compromising the union when his personal opinion slipped in during Cosatu's policy conference early this year.

He said Zuma was on his way to the presidency. He was an unstoppable tsunami.


Willie Madisha: President

Although publicly he toes the line, he is seen as very soft compared to the militancy in the federation.

At a press conference in Johannesburg in June, he said if Zuma was found guilty, Cosatu would say "you have disappointed us".

SACP

On the whole it supports Zuma in principle, but the approach and modality has been the subject of contestation that divides its leadership.

In its presentation to the ten-a-side, it avoided defending Zuma blindly. It instead raised concerns that the crisis in the ANC has much to do with the ruling party detaching itself from the people and neglecting its key allies in policy formulation processes.

Key figures

Blade Nzimande: secretary-general

A loyal Zuma supporter who is largely informed by his personal concern that the ANC under Mbeki has neglected the working class and lost its liberation movement character. He believes Zuma represents a leadership calibre that will resuscitate the ANC's socialist tendency. However, his personal detestation of Mbeki also influences his position.

Jeremy Cronin: deputy secretary-general

Although he is not necessarily an Mbeki supporter, he has expressed differences with Nzimande over Zuma support, cautioning against blind loyalty. He is seen as a buffer and a catalyst in the organisation.

ANCYL

The ANC Youth League's support for Zuma is largely based on the succession plan for the ANC. While under Malusi Gigaba, the intensity of the Zuma affair was not as tumultuous as the current crisis. Under Mbalula, the league started as Mbeki's mouthpiece, attacking Cosatu on issues such as Zimbabwe, until an overnight somersault.

Key figures

Fikile Mbalula

He has changed from being an Mbeki loudmouth to the loudest Zuma supporter. He has attacked Mbeki in his online column, challenging his third-term presidential ambition, saying that this will trigger unmanageable tensions.

Like Cosatu, he believes Zuma is a victim of conspirators.

Reuben Mohlaloga

He is from the Gigaba league - an elite, BEE type, ambitious and debonair in his dress. Like Gigaba he is an MP and this is seen as influencing his stance. He defended Mbeki by embarrassingly challenging Mbalula's online column on the two centres of power issue. This caused ructions in the league, culminating in his suspension.

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*1  Elephant No. 2.

Let the games of the beasts begin.