President Thabo Mbeki’s steady campaign to contain the fallout over the sacking of his deputy Jacob Zuma is moving up a gear, with the president set to announce a replacement for Zuma this week.

Mbeki’s announcement is likely to follow a sitting of the national working committee of the African National Congress (ANC) today, at which the president will make his choice known to the party’s top officials.

The announcement comes as he moves to consolidate his grip on the ANC, following a week marked by a popular outpouring of support for Zuma after he was fired from cabinet last Tuesday.

There are signs that Mbeki is already taking back the initiative in the ongoing battle against Zuma and his supporters.

Mpumalanga premier Thabang Makwetla, considered an Mbeki man, was elected ANC Mpumalanga chairman at the weekend, barely three days after crowds at a youth day rally in the province publicly backed Zuma and sang anti-Mbeki songs.

Mbeki’s appointment of a new deputy president — expected to be between Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula and Provincial and Local Government Minister Sydney Mufamadi — also comes amid indications that the fallout over Zuma’s sacking could overshadow next week’s crucial meeting of the ANC’s national general council.

Mbeki is keen to prevent next week’s gathering turning into a popular platform for Zuma. By announcing a successor before the meeting, he hopes to settle the divisive issue so the council can concentrate on policy issues.

The council’s meeting is the most important policy forum between ANC national conferences, drawing about 3000 delegates from ANC branches, as well as representatives of the ANC’s alliance partners, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and South African Communist Party (SACP).

This year’s meeting is set to consider policy proposals that may drastically reshape the labour market, and moves to redesign the party.

However, ANC insiders said the Zuma sacking was likely to cast a shadow over the meeting. A source said Zuma supporters were not over their suspicion that state institutions were used to settle party political scores.

ANC sources said the most important discussion at next week’s meeting would be about how to rejuvenate the organisation. They said ANC branches across the country had become virtually moribund as local leaders became mired in fights for municipal office and resources.

A senior national executive committee (NEC) member said: “The ANC is riddled with factions, is ideologically at sea, and faces serious moral challenges. That is the background for the Zuma-Mbeki division.”

Any discussion of these challenges was likely to open up the divisions over the Zuma sacking, the NEC member said.

Another stumbling block in the way of the council’s meeting is the possibility of charges against Zuma.

The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) has yet to pronounce on whether the former deputy president will have his day in court.

NPA officials said yesterday the agency was still seeking legal opinion on the matter.

This lends credibility to suggestions that the NPA is likely to move cautiously against Zuma, despite Judge Hilary Squires’ finding that he had a “generally corrupt” relationship with his former financial adviser Schabir Shaik.

Should the NPA decide to charge Zuma before the council meeting, Mbeki’s hand would be further strengthened.

Both Nqakula and Mufamadi are seen as stop-gap options, since neither aspires to the top job. This would prevent the choice being seen as an anointment of a successor to the ANC presidency in 2007.

Sources said Nqakula, as chairman of the SACP, would allow Mbeki to divide his detractors on the left and split support for Zuma.

But ethnic considerations may count against him. Zuma’s supporters in KwaZulu-Natal have already suggested his sacking was ethnically motivated by a Xhosa clique.

Mufamadi is viewed as a safe bet because he enjoys the president’s confidence, and is not viewed as a candidate for the presidency. However, Mufamadi is considered a “low key option”. ANC insiders are increasingly tipping secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe to succeed Mbeki as president in 2007.

However, Motlanthe is unlikely to be named as deputy president, to avoid linking his candidacy to the fall of Zuma.

A key indicator of Mbeki’s long-term plans for government will be next month’s cabinet lekgotla, where drastic changes to government operations will be debated. The president is expected to announce a long-awaited reshuffle of his cabinet after the lekgotla.

With acknowledgement to the Business Day.