Policy goals weigh with party interests

President Thabo Mbeki will be well aware that ordinary South Africans - and the rest of the world - are waiting for him to take them into his confidence about the fate of his heir apparent, Jacob Zuma.

There is no doubt that Mbeki is in an unenviable position - Comrade JZ is one of the most influential and powerful members of the ANC.

To many in the ANC, it is Zuma who has been destined to take over the reins when Mbeki steps down in 2009 after his second term.

The deputy president has mass appeal; he is charming, he has humour, he is a skilled fighter and negotiator, and he has risen through the ranks of the liberation movement against considerable odds, not least of which is that his impoverished background meant he had no formal schooling.

Zuma was groomed in the school of politics. He served 10 years on Robben Island for treason. He became head of the ANC's intelligence structures. And when liberation finally came, he became an MEC in KwaZulu-Natal and then deputy president.

Now his future hangs in the balance.

Much of the decision rests with Mbeki and there is considerable pressure on the president to share his thoughts on what is arguably his biggest political challenge since the dawn of democracy in 1994.

But, as one insider put it yesterday, "there will be no case of summary execution".

There can be no doubt that by the time the president makes a decision, he will have studied the judgment in which Schabir Shaik, Zuma's confidant and financial adviser, was found to have, among things, a "generally corrupt relationship" with the deputy president.

Weighing heavily on Mbeki's mind will be his drive for clean governance - after all, it was he who issued a stern warning just two weeks ago that corruption would not be tolerated among members of his cabinet.

In a speech to parliament, Mbeki said the government would have to ensure that the work of its executive structures "is not undermined or compromised by corruption".

Of particular importance was "the harm that would be, and is, caused to the development process by the abuse of state power by members of the executive corruptly to accumulate personal wealth".

Much has been made of the finding by Justice Hilary Squires that there was a "generally corrupt relationship" between Shaik and Zuma.

But Zuma was not charged, nor was he on trial.

Vusi Pikoli, head of the National Prosecuting Authority, will likely face the same predicament as his predecessor, Bulelani Ngcuka: there may be a prima facie case for Zuma to answer, but chances of a prosecution based on the evidence available are slim.

At the heart of the matter is that the judgment makes it clear Shaik was able to manipulate Zuma and that the man destined for the highest office in the land could not manage his own affairs.

Zuma's continued presence in Mbeki's cabinet under the cloud of the Shaik judgment will almost certainly be untenable, leaving the president with the option of reaching an agreement with Zuma that he step down.

Mbeki will also be mindful of the implications of keeping Zuma in office when he joins British Prime Minister Tony Blair in attempts to convince the Group of Eight at its summit next month that it should agree to cancel debt and provide a rescue package for Africa, based on clean governance, democracy and transparency.

If Zuma refuses to go quietly, Mbeki could be compelled to fire him, but this would be the least desirable option, given the divisions in the ANC and its tripartite alliance over Zuma's fate.

What is certain is that Mbeki will not make any significant announcements before he is able to see Zuma face to face this weekend, his earliest opportunity. Mbeki is also unlikely to reach a decision without consulting his closest advisers and the ANC's national working committee on Monday.

Mbeki's options in dealing with his deputy are limited and his political skills will be tested to the limit - if that is what Zuma want

With acknowledgements to Jeremy Michaels and the Cape Times.