No obvious heir

With deputy president Jacob Zuma's exit from the second most important political post increasingly likely, the question is, who will succeed him?

Constitutionally the president has to appoint someone in the deputy president's place, Shadrak Gutto, constitutional expert and head of Unisa's Renaissance Institute, confirmed at the weekend.

Mbeki has a number of senior ministers to choose from, although there is no obvious immediate successor to Zuma, who has also been a front-runner to succeed the president as the next head of state.

Choosing from his senior ministers may produce a ripple effect in the cabinet.

Mbeki is not known for making sudden major changes, but a cabinet reshuffle has been on the cards for a while, say senior aides.

"It is likely the person (appointed as deputy president) would be one of the senior ministers, and this may entail only a minor shuffle," Gutto said.

"But my view is there is likely to be a major reshuffle and that Mbeki would use that opportunity to look at the balance in terms of the overall governance and to reposition some of the ministers."

Adding to the likelihood that this may occur, is speculation that public works minister Stella Sigcau is poised to retire, as she was hospitalised again this week with heart problems.

There is also speculation that the ANC may want to present a stronger face of government before local government elections.

Complicating the decision is that Mbeki's choice is likely to be viewed as his anointing an heir - something the 2007 ANC congress has to decide on.

The next most senior figure in the ANC's ranks is party chairman and defence minister Mosiuoa Lekota who, like Zuma, has played a high-profile role in peacemaking in Africa.

He has also brought minority groups, including the former New National Party, into the ANC fold.

Another obvious choice in terms of seniority is foreign minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Her appointment would certainly underline the ANC commitment to placing women in leadership positions.

Her close relationship with Mbeki would make the transition easy and she has two deputies, including the able and experienced Aziz Pahad, to continue her work.

But such a move would definitely be seen as Mbeki choosing a successor.

Another close confidante of Mbeki's is minerals and energy minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, believed by some to be groomed for succession by the president himself.

Others whose names have been mentioned in connection with the succession are outside the cabinet. They include ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe and business magnate Cyril Ramaphosa as well as behind-the-scenes policy head Joel Netshitenzhe.

Any one of these if they were indeed to climb the ranks, would first have to get some experience in the cabinet and be made ministers. Another possibility is moving finance minister Trevor Manuel to the position, giving the markets a chance to get used to a new finance minister and giving a nod in the direction of minorities ahead of local government elections.

But many ministers are not even halfway through their programme of action and a major reshuffle may prove highly disruptive.

If Mbeki wants to retain the status quo, he may opt for an elder with cabinet experience such as former education minister Kader Asmal, who now heads parliament's defence committee, to hold the fort until he is ready for a more thorough shuffle.

With acknowledgements to Chiara Carter, Christelle Terreblanche and the Cape Times.