Publication: Sunday Independent Issued: Date: 2005-12-11 Reporter: Chiara Carter

Most Backers of JZ Will Weather the Storm

 

Publication 

Sunday Independent
Date

2005-12-11

Reporter

 Chiara Carter

Web Link

www.sundayindependent.co.za

 

Few would dispute that the presidential ambitions of Jacob Zuma have floundered - and are quite possibly sinking - in deep and murky waters. But what of the fortunes of his hitherto fiercely loyal crew?

Zuma was given succour, despite facing a corruption trial, from the top leadership of the South African Communist Party, Cosatu and the ANC Youth League as well as from a clutch of provincial politicians, notably in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, and a good sprinkling of ANC national executive committee (NEC) members.

With the exception of the ANC and Communist Party youth, these supporters have fallen silent in the face of Zuma being charged with rape.

Cosatu and the SACP began backtracking by stating they had never supported Zuma as a future ANC president because this was a matter for the ANC to decide.

Analysts say this was Orwellian-speak - few members of the public would have read the previous fiery utterances by Zwelinzima Vavi, the general secretary of Cosatu, and Blade Nzimande, the SACP secretary, as anything other than supporting Zuma, who was fighting to retain his chance of succeeding Mbeki.

Politicians in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal have meanwhile all but conceded that a future president cannot be someone who has placed himself in a position where he could be accused of rape.

But will this be enough to save those politicians and officials whose previous utterances and actions were aimed at protecting and promoting Zuma?

Or will they vanish, purged from the political stage as Zuma fights court battle after court battle? And what of the populist, Left-leaning sentiment that made the Zuma cause so attractive to many grassroots ANC activists?

Recent developments have strengthened the hand of those within the SACP and Cosatu who have been warning against the alliance partners pigeonholing themselves within the cause of an individual who previously had no real history of promoting the Left project.

But that does not necessarily mean that Nzimande or Vavi are likely to face the guillotine for their previous, ardent backing of Zuma.

For some time the SACP has had more nuance in its messages of support than other Zuma backers, and few think the party will force Nzimande to pay the price for Zuma's demise.

As for the outspoken Young Communist leader, Buti Manamela, it remains to be seen if the Zuma cause was his 15 minutes of fame, because he was certainly no household name before he began issuing fierce statements backing Zuma.

Unionists point out that there has been disquiet for some time within Cosatu over the federation's stance and that there have been previous concerns that Vavi's tone and style was too confrontationist and lacked depth.

However, others argue that it is time for labour to be less conciliatory towards a government whose policies often clash with working-class interests.

One thing is for certain - neither Vavi nor Nzimande will find themselves invited into the inner portals of governance by either Mbeki or a similarly inclined future president. This is not only because of the Zuma affair. Both leaders have previously clashed with Mbeki's government over policy questions.

The ANC Youth League, led by Fikile Mbalula, is sounding increasingly isolated and is at odds with the Women's League, which came out strongly on the rape issue.

Several senior ANC figures say the cash-strapped Youth League has a louder voice than it has members, and that its pretensions at being kingmaker might turn out to be just that - a pretension.

If so, Mbalula is likely to vanish from ANC politics. But if he can command important support for a would-be presidential successor, his reward might be a bigger political stage.

The fortunes of the grouping that is closest to the core of Zuma support - ANC and SACP politicians who were in the past on occasion labelled a "cabal" - has by and large been on the wane for some years.

The departure of the Shaik brothers and the former minister Mac Maharaj from the public sector has been mirrored by dozens of other associated departures by lesser-known associates. Most of these will probably follow a path in business.

Officials within the government regarded as close to Zuma face the possibility of being sidelined, but officials who in the past were associated with other failed leadership challenges, such as that of Matthews Phosa, the former Mpumalanga premier, managed to survive.

And as for the purge at the National Intelligence Agency - not only has Ronnie Kasrils, the intelligence minister, been at pains to deny that it is politically motivated, but both Billy Masetlha, the former NIA boss, and Gibson Njenje, a senior NIA official, were closely associated with Mbeki's inner circle in the past.

Over in the Eastern Cape, much of Zuma's support came from politicians who have found themselves marginalised by the provincial government. They are likely to throw their weight behind a sympathetic new contender for the presidency. After all, they do not have much to lose.

KwaZulu-Natal is the heartland of Zuma support. Of all politicians in the province, the biggest question mark hangs over the head of Zweli Mkhize, the finance MEC, who once again finds himself listed as a witness in a trial.

But insiders say much depends on what role Mkhize played in the rape saga, and they point out that Mkhize himself has said that he acted as a family friend, rather than intervening on behalf of Zuma, as was alleged.

Any attempt to purge the Zuma backers in the province would be unwise, given the volatile nature of politics in the region. Analysts point out that it is early days to predict political fortunes.

If Zuma has been vanquished, this does not mean that Mbeki and his circle have won. The rebellion at the ANC general council this year was palpable evidence that there is rank-and-file dissatisfaction with the style and substance of leadership in the ANC and that all is not well within the organisation itself.

Amanda Gouws, a political analyst, says she anticipates that the need to present a united ANC would mean dissenters would be silenced or purged. But she expects that the Zuma support base will be transferred to another contender for the presidency, someone who is perceived to be sympathetic to redistributive policies and the labour movement.

Author William Mervin Gumede has said that we are seeing a battle for the soul of the ANC. Judith February, an analyst, says the political situation is fluid and argues that the ANC needs to find new way of doing politics - the party needs to rebuild branches and encourage robust debate.

February says the party's Left, too, needs to refocus and realign itself, working out what its major goals are in the wake of having put all its eggs in Zuma's basket.

She believes strong leadership is needed to ensure that the country weathers the storm and matures its political practice at the same time as tackling critical questions of delivery, accountability and transparency.

Whether the closing years of the Mbeki presidency will bring greater assertion of collective leadership within the ANC remains to be seen. As does the question of whether the decline of Zuma will mean greater marginalisation of the Left, and a centralisation of power - and the inevitable further weakening of the ANC.

With acknowledgement to Chiara Carter and Sunday Independent.