The only thing standing between Schabir Shaik and a 15-year jail sentence is South Africa's president of the Supreme Court of Appeals.

Although the Durban businessman claims to be "considering his options" after being refused leave to appeal against one of his corruption charges on Friday, he only has one option left.

And it will be a tense few months wait for a decision from South Africa's top judge of appeal.

If the answer is no, it could see Shaik swapping smart designer business suits for prison garb with his other appeals becoming somewhat academic.

A legal source said that, depending on workload, such a petition could take up to six months.

"He should hear by the end of the year. It is possible that the judge might decide to hear the petition and, at the same time, do the appeals which have been allowed.

"It has been done before. This could expedite the process."

Judge Hilary Squires last week refused Shaik leave to appeal on the corruption charge relating to a generally corrupt relationship he had with former deputy president Jacob Zuma, the businessman making payments to and on behalf of the politician in return for business favours and influence.

For that he received 15 years in jail. Squires also refused him leave to appeal against the sentence.

But he granted Shaik leave to appeal on the second corruption charge – that he organised a bribe from arms deal preferred bidder Thomsons for Zuma – and on the fraud charge, that he illegally wrote off R1,2-million from the books of his Nkobi group of companies.

On the fraud charge, he said the state witness had only been "slightly more impressive" than Shaik and his evidence should be put to the test.

On the corruption charge, the judge said the admissibility of the encrypted fax, which had apparently hailed from the French arms company and "proved" the bribe agreement, should also be tested. If it were found to be admissible, then the Appeal Court should assess if the weight attached to it was correct.

He declined Shaik leave to appeal against the sentences imposed for these crimes – 15 years for corruption and three years for fraud – which were to have run concurrently with the 15 years on the first corruption count.

Squires gave Shaik – who sighed and fidgeted nervously throughout the one-hour ruling – 21 days to lodge his petition with the president of the Supreme Court of Appeals and suspended the fines imposed on his companies pending the outcome of the petition and appeal. He also extended his bail of R100 000.

National Prosecuting Authority spokesperson Makhosini Nkosi said he expected that it could take up to a year for the matter to be finally resolved. "We are not in a rush."

Speaking to the media afterwards, Shaik said he was grateful, "but would have liked to have been victorious on all charges".

With acknowledgements to Tania Broughton and the Pretoria News.