If Mbeki fires Zuma

- Zuma may still continue as deputy president of the ANC, a position which could be used to calm his supporters and prevent the break-up of the ANC, which would see his removal as a temporary setback to be rectified in 2009. Zuma can still remain member of parliament.

- Mbeki has to appoint a new deputy, who could be either Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma or Terror Lekota. Dlamini-Zuma is preferred by Mbeki, who wants to leave a legacy of the first African woman president, but Lekota is the most senior ANC leader after Zuma. Appointing Dlamini-Zuma would not boost support for Mbeki in the ANC, whereas Lekota would bring in the so-called inxiles, who helped him to the chairmanship against Mbeki's candidate Steve Tshwete.

- Mbeki is hailed as a leader of principle by all those calling for action against corruption, but is vilified by ANC members who think he fired Zuma to influence the choice of his successor.

- Mbeki's standing among world leaders, from whom he needs support for his continental work, is increased.

- The National Prosecution Authority may still charge Zuma for perjury and corruption.

If Mbeki does nothing

- Zuma continues as deputy president of the country;

- World leaders who respect Mbeki for his principles lose faith and support for the continental initiatives dries up;

- All Mbeki's supporters in the ANC are disappointed but there is no internal party upheaval;

- Nationally, outside the ANC there is huge disappointment because Mbeki is seen as a weak president who talks big but does not act;

- The ANC stand against corruption is seen as hypocritical, acting against councillors and MPs but not senior members;

- The ANC and Mbeki continue to be hammered in the media locally and internationally;

- Effectively, Zuma is seen as the real man with power and Mbeki as ceremonial; and

- National Prosecution Authority head Vusi Pikoli could institute charges of perjury and corruption, which would force Zuma to resign from his positions in government and the ANC, leaving Mbeki free to argue that he did not force him to resign. *1

With acnowledgement to City Press.

But ever so sadly, the probable reality is that the Schabir Shaik / Jacob Zuma fiasco is actually a mere sideshow, a diversion, a dilution, a smokescreen - nothing to do with political inheritance or legacy, but a convenient and expendable sacrifice on the altar of collective self-preservation of the highest and mightiest.