It's really getting messy for the ANC.

In spite of the best efforts of its leadership, the organisation is unable to contain the very public crisis it finds itself in.

We've had toyi-toying youths burning T-shirts bearing President Thabo Mbeki's image at the court hearing of the party's deputy president, Jacob Zuma; cabinet ministers and senior civil servants pointing fingers at each other as Judge Sisi Khampepe ponders the fate of the Scorpions; and Khayelitsha members marching on the ANC's provincial offices for the second time in a month, accusing the provincial leaders of purging the party of people disloyal to them.

While the events of the past weeks may seem like isolated incidents, they are all connected. The vanguard party is engaged in a bitter tussle about the soul of the movement - and about who is going to be the next president. As the saying goes: "When two bull elephants fight, it's the grass that gets trampled."

Anti-Mbeki forces across the country have found in Zuma a willing hub around which to rally their supporters. They are using the corruption charges levelled against him as a catalyst to strengthen their new-left position. Cosatu, the Young Communists, Youth League members and senior ANC comrades are preparing the ground for the 2007 national congress, where the party will elect its new leaders.

Just how Mbeki responds to the challenges to his leadership will determine how we go forward as a nation.

The court appearances of Zuma are already becoming problematic, with his supporters publicly claiming that he won't get a fair trial and portraying the role of the Scorpions in the whole saga as being carried out at the bidding of Mbeki.

This in itself is undermining the independence of the judiciary - one of the key foundations on which our democratic system is built. The attack on the Scorpions is also an attack on the integrity of government structures and this is where the ruling party has failed to stamp its authority.

The Khampepe hearings have become an arena where senior cabinet ministers and their top officials are having a go at each other and their differing opinions are being understood as placing them in support of the president or in opposition to him.

It must be remembered that the Scorpions are Mbeki's creation, and there is a deep-seated suspicion that he has been using the elite crime- fighters to silence opponents.

From Zuma to Schabir Shaik, they have all experienced the capabilities of the Scorpions. This is why so many ANC members, including cabinet ministers, want the unit integrated into the police service. It is also apparent why the Khampepe Commission has become another site of open division for leading members of the ruling elite.

But the fact that the commission is hearing presentations from these powerful individuals now, while the Zuma court battle is unfolding, is disconcerting. Whatever the findings of the Khampepe Commission, the Scorpions will no longer be the same entity it was just a couple of weeks ago. And it will be this new entity that will ultimately have to proceed with the court case against Zuma. Will the post-Khampepe body be as resolute in its endeavours to prosecute? And what impact will that have on people's faith in the judiciary?

But the question we all want an answer to can only be answered after the conclusion of the legal proceedings against Zuma: If Zuma does not make it to the 2007 conference, who will challenge Mbeki for the presidency of the ruling party?

With acknowledgements to Joseph Aranes and the Cape Argus.