Ii is said that the past has a habit of finding its way into the present and haunting us well into the future. In South African politics this is a truism ­ the politics of 2006 will no doubt be dominated by events that had their origins in 2005. Much of what started last year will also only be resolved in 2007.

Last year’s political calendar was marked by the political downfall of former deputy president Jacob Zuma. Once a presidential hopeful, he now finds himself increasingly isolated inside and outside the African National Congress (ANC).

For Zuma, 2006 will be the year he goes into battle to stay alive politically, fending off a double whammy of rape and corruption charges.

Zuma’s troubles crystallised in June last year, when President Thabo Mbeki sacked him from the cabinet after Judge Hillary Squires’ finding that he shared a “generally corrupt” relationship with his former financial adviser, Schabir Shaik.

Mbeki’s sacking of Zuma earned him high praise, including from the political opposition and the international community. At government level, Mbeki’s leadership in the Zuma debacle must be seen as a triumph for the rule of law and the country’s constitution.

But inside the ANC-led alliance, Mbeki’s axing of his deputy went down like a lead balloon. While Zuma’s dismissal from cabinet had been handled with the necessary finesse, he had failed to get sufficient backing from the grassroots to make his actions legitimate in their eyes. At the time, some party cadres said publicly it was Mbeki’s constitutional prerogative to axe Zuma. However, many privately disagreed with the way he went about it.

Zuma’s demise must be seen through the prism of the succession battle in the party. Many ANC cadres refused to deal with the parallel legal processes that Zuma was embroiled in ­ and Mbeki’s acknowledgement on television that he would consider the possibility of remaining as party leader in 2007 seemed to encourage this approach. With just one year to go before the ANC’s national conference, this year will see the battle for control of the party intensify.

Given Zuma’s refusal to quit the succession race, despite facing two criminal trials, this year will determine whether the ANC’s succession question will be partly resolved in a court of law.

That he had to be forced to resign from all leadership structures of the ANC only after he was charged with rape is the mark of a desperate politician holding on to his bid for ultimate power in the ruling party.

It was the decision by Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils to suspend three top National Intelligence Agency spies for mounting an illegal operation against businessman Saki Macozoma that blew the lid on the extent to which the goings on in the ANC have affected state institutions.

Another potential casualty of the Zuma-Mbeki fallout could be the crime-busting Scorpions unit. After enduring harsh criticism from ANC party bigwigs on its handling of the Zuma matter, the Scorpions found themselves out in the cold as senior ministers lobbied for the unit to be incorporated into the police.

This year Mbeki will receive the recommendations of the Khampepe commission and decide the future of the unit. Notwithstanding the real need to address issues of oversight and accountability as it relates to the intelligence gathering functions of the unit, we have consistently called for the Scorpions to remain independent from the South African Police Service. SA will be watching with keen interest to see whether Mbeki will buckle under the pressure from vested interests in both the ruling party and cabinet, who are eager to see the sting taken out of the Scorpions’ tail.

This year should also see intelligence inspector-general Zolile Ngcakani concluding his probe into the unauthorised surveillance operation into Macozoma, as well as the origin of the so-called hoax e-mails. Whatever the outcome of these investigations, they must serve to point the way for the speedy professionalisation of the country’s security establishment.

Zuma’s rape trial, set for next month, will no doubt be turned into a media spectacle. Rape trials have the tendency to be sordid and messy affairs with few winners, and this trial will be no different.

In July Zuma goes back to court to face corruption charges. Depending on how the trial proceeds, we could see Mbeki being called as a witness by Zuma’s defence team *1. If Zuma’s spin doctors are to be believed, South Africans will then hear more about the intrigue that surrounded SA’s controversial multibillion-rand arms deal.

Local government will remain in the spotlight this year as South Africans go to the polls for municipal elections in March. Sceptics are predicting a poor showing in the wake of the slack delivery of basic services. The polls have the potential to turn violent if residual anger over border changes intended to correct cross-boundary municipalities flares up. The fallout from the Zuma-Mbeki saga is also likely to worsen the growing apathy among voters. Moreover, the recent floor-crossing windows have done little to make the political process more credible. The fracturing of opposition parties and the establishment of one-man parties will do little to enhance public confidence their political representatives.

Parliament is set to open in the first week of next month, and we trust the legislature will confront the remnants of the Travelgate and Oilgate sagas that have cast a shadow over the integrity of the institution. While we commend the arrests of the guilty MPs last year, the handling of the matter has left unanswered questions. A key challenge for Parliament is also for its ethics committee to continue the process of redrafting its code, which is critical to protect and promote the values of openness and accountability.

Politics is as much about perception as it is about power, and the perception last year was that more often than not politicians were more interested in feathering their own nests than serving their voters.

Here’s to a 2006 that sees them reverting to serving the people.

With acknowledgement to the Business Day.