Is there a political conspiracy against former deputy president Jacob Zuma, and is President Thabo Mbeki behind a campaign to prevent Zuma from becoming president of the African National Congress (ANC) in 2007?

We shall never know the answer to this question because the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), the South African Communist Party (SACP) and others who support Zuma are unlikely to accept Mbeki’s proposal for the alliance to set up an internal commission of inquiry to investigate allegations of a plot against Zuma. If the commission does sit, it will be boycotted by the Zuma faction.

Zuma’s supporters will certainly dismiss Mbeki’s suggestion as a cynical political move because, as he argues in his letter in ANC Today, there is a belief that he occupies “the leading position in the political onslaught against (ANC) deputy president Zuma”.

Because some of the actors in this sordid piece of political theatre are guilty of Orwellian manipulation, Mbeki’s motives and the response of the Zuma coalition to the suggestion of a commission of inquiry will test our skills of analysis and interpretation to the limit.

A positive reading of Mbeki’s intentions should lead us to the conclusion that he has decided that the oft-repeated allegation of a conspiracy against Zuma should be subjected to an objective test.

Also, to the extent that tension is beginning to develop between the truth and the cohesion and unity of the alliance, he is taking the principled stance of choosing the truth over an alliance whose continued existence may have to depend on the perpetuation of a grand lie.

Put differently, the tripartite alliance was forged to fight the lie of white supremacy; it should be able to survive the humiliation some of its leaders will suffer when the truth about the existence of a plot against Zuma is revealed.

However, Mbeki’s proposal may have nothing, or very little, to do with the truth and the future of the alliance. He may be aware that conspiracies are extremely difficult to prove, even when they do exist. If he is half as astute as he is said to be, he surely must know that Cosatu and its allies in the pro-Zuma camp will never be able to adduce evidence in support of their allegation, and that, like Mo Shaik and Mac Maharaj, will bring obloquy on Zuma and his cause.

This is an outcome that is guaranteed whether the perception of a conspiracy is grounded in reality or not. For Zuma, a commission of inquiry would be disastrous because he might be unable to keep the promise he made to workers to divulge the identity of the individuals who have been plotting against him.

But Cosatu’s leaders expect too much from the public if they think people should be eternally satisfied with a continuous stream of allegations that are not supported with incontrovertible evidence. When an allegation is repeated as often as the anti-Zuma conspiracy theory, there must come a time when some proof is shared with Zuma supporters and the nation.

This must happen because perceptions are beginning to drive mass political behaviour in ways that may pose a danger to the stability of our country.

In KwaZulu-Natal, former enemies who took part in the violent political war between the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party are uniting around the Zuma affair. Many are driven by the belief that a faction in the ruling party is fighting an ethnic and tribal battle against Zuma.

All we need to fan the flames of political violence is a critical mass of people in KwaZulu-Natal to embrace the notion of an agenda against the most populous tribe in this country.

It is for this reason that leaders of the alliance must realise that the leadership vacuum that has characterised the Zuma saga, and irresponsible public statements, may plunge our democracy into the kind of turmoil we have seen elsewhere on the continent. We must not think that SA and her people are unique and that violent conflict will never be a reality of our political life again.

Further, we must avoid making political statements that will make it impossible for Zuma supporters to accept the verdict of our courts even when the state has presented a credible case. We must build public confidence in the judiciary because in the absence of the rule of, and respect for, the law, the dogs of anarchy will roam freely, desecrating the graves of struggle heroes and voraciously devouring the pillars of our constitutional democracy.

This is the price our nascent democracy will pay if the leaders of the ANC, Cosatu and the SACP fail to rise to the challenge of effective political management and responsible leadership.

Mbeki, too, must rise to the challenge of providing visionary leadership. Technical solutions such as a commission of inquiry will, on their own, not work.

The answer lies in appreciating that the only way out is a political solution that transcends narrow factional interests and the desire to defeat political opponents. To achieve this, Mbeki may have to abandon the idea of a commission of inquiry, and those who support Zuma may have to refrain from making allegations of a conspiracy and allow Zuma to have his day in court as they have previously demanded.

Matshiqi is an independent political analyst.

With acknowledgements to Aubrey Matshiqi and the Business Day.