The African National Congress (ANC) national executive committee (NEC) meets today amid signs the party is split over President Thabo Mbeki’s proposed commission to probe allegations of a “plot” against Jacob Zuma.

Mbeki’s position has failed to find wide acceptance in the ANC, leading to fears that this weekend’s meeting will be bogged down by the divisive Zuma issue.

If the NEC rejects Mbeki’s idea, it would also mean a divided and weakened ANC confronting the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and South African Communist Party (SACP) at the next alliance meeting.

Both Cosatu and the SACP have rejected the appointment of a commission to probe the allegations.

“The disaster scenario for Mbeki is if the NEC rejects the idea. That would deepen the crisis at alliance level by further isolating Mbeki,” political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said. “Therefore (the NEC) might take the option of limiting the damage by backing a compromise position. If this happens, then a mock unity will emerge around Mbeki.”

Matshiqi said it had been clear since June, when Mbeki took the decision to dismiss Zuma as SA’s deputy president following the criminal conviction of his financial adviser Schabir Shaik, that senior ANC leaders were not united behind his course of action.

“After firing Zuma, Mbeki ideally should have made his case against Zuma to the ANC, arguing he couldn’t retain his ANC position either. That he failed to do this was indicated a lack of support for his position in the ANC,” Matshiqi said.

Mbeki has this week attempted to rally the party around him.

He wants the ANC to endorse his idea that a commission of inquiry be appointed to probe perceptions that he was behind a conspiracy to frustrate Zuma’s political career.

Mbeki seemed to have cleared the first hurdle this week when the party’s working committee backed the commission “in principle”.

But cracks have since emerged, with some party sources saying the working committee had not endorsed the plan and instead decided to defer a decision to the NEC.

“There’s a lot of parading going on,” said a source.

“There’s a desperate attempt to defend the president at all costs by misrepresenting the outcome of the working committee’s discussion. This has done nothing but harden tensions.”

ANC spokesman Smuts Ngonyama insisted the working committee had discussed and agreed on Mbeki’s proposal. Ngonyama said the NEC would spend most of the weekend discussing the party’s campaign for the upcoming local government elections.

Meanwhile, Mbeki neatly sidestepped a grilling in Parliament over Zuma. No-one had called on him to reinstate his deputy and the conditions that led to Zuma’s sacking in June still applied, he said.

With the alliance partners having rejected the idea of a commission, and with the ANC seemingly poised to do likewise this weekend, Mbeki also faced stiff resistance to the idea from opposition parties.

He told MPs the commission would have no statutory powers, and would not be publicly funded.

With acknowledgments to Vukani Mde, Wyndham Hartley and the Business Day.