Support within the ANC Alliance for the sacked deputy president Jacob Zuma has been compared to a tidal wave, and there's no other way to describe it. Emotions are running so high after his dismissal that any evidence of corruption emerging from the trial of his former financial adviser seems to be irrelevant. Although the support for Zuma is almost irrational, there is a strong belief that the deputy president has somehow been set up by unnamed political rivals within the African National Congress; that he was not given a fair chance to clear his name and was tried by a hostile media.

Although Zuma has surprisingly wide support throughout the ANC and remains its deputy president, class and ethnic factors play a part in the way the divisions are playing out. The two working class organisations in the ruling Alliance, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party (SACP), apparently still see Zuma as their first choice for president after Mbeki. Yet at the opposite end of the political spectrum within the ANC, the ANC Youth League has led a loud pro-Zuma campaign despite the fact that they are seen as part of the Mbeki camp. Likewise Zuma has solid support in his home base of KwaZulu Natal, so solid that the premier of KZN was pelted with missiles by angry youths at a rally days after Zuma's sacking.

In addition, he seems to have a strong following throughout the country, including in the Xhosa-dominated Eastern Cape from where Mbeki and Mandela come.

An added ethnic dimension to the conflict is the fact that most of South Africa's Indian minority population live in KZN, so it was not unusual for Zuma to develop a close friendship with the Shaik brothers, including the ill-fated Schabir who now faces 15 years in prison for fraud and corruption, pending the outcome of a possible appeal. He was found to have supported Zuma financially through illegal means in return for alleged support for his business dealings. It's a harsh sentence, as the head of the National Prosecuting Authority admitted.

The trial of Shaik has caused some ethnic tensions, with comments like: "Shaik went down because he wasn't black enough" now in vogue - a reference to perceptions of Africanism in the ANC and fairly widespread corrupt practises in the new Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) circles. But that kind of sentiment is by no means uniform in the Indian community.

The popular belief that Zuma has somehow been victimised extends sometimes to other liberation heroes convicted of fraud, like Winnie Mandela and Tony Yengeni. This is accompanied by the belief that, even if there has been some wrongdoing, the perpetrators should not be jailed today because of their contribution in the past. At the last Cosatu congress, which took place when the allegations against Zuma first became public, the whole event was marked by a noisy show of support for Zuma and a polite but unenthusiastic welcome for President Mbeki. The only other working class hero who received more applause than Zuma was Winnie Mandela when she made a brief appearance. In his speech Zuma made no secret of his socialist sympathies which went down well with his audience, who also gave SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande, a warmer welcome than the state president - a sign of continuing displeasure within the labour movement with the government's economic direction.

In the case of the deputy president, feelings are running particularly high among his supporters because they seem to have no confidence in the Schabir trial judgement. The judge, Justice Hilary Squires, is not just Rhodesian but the former justice minister under Ian Smith. He is seen as being responsible for hanging many Zimbabwean freedom fighters and it seems ironic to many South Africans that all these years later, he's a free man and still has the power to send former freedom fighters like Shaik and Zuma to jail. However, this trial took place against the background of a row over the slow progress in transforming the racial make-up and, in some cases, the mind-set, of the white-male-dominated judiciary.

However, President Mbeki surprised many when he chose Minerals and Energy minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka to succeed Zuma. While she is known as one of the most effective cabinet ministers and is known to have some support in the business sector, her appointment may prove controversial because her husband and former chief prosecutor Bulelani Ngcuka, initiated the investigation that ultimately led to the downfall of Zuma.

Business Day reported that African reaction was unanimously supportive of Mbeki, and it quoted Kenyan and Zambian government ministers in support of this claim. The paper also quoted Femi Falana, president of the West African Bar Association, who said: "The entire civil society group in Nigeria and the entire African continent will learn from this experience."

The Zuma crisis couldn't have come at a worse time for the South African government. Here it's a winter of discontent, with township residents in many parts of the country demonstrating for faster service delivery - and in some cases rioting. The government is struggling to accelerate its housing delivery in particular, but the task is enormous. At least it is trying, unlike in neighboring Zimbabwe where the Mugabe regime is engaged in an orgy of violence and destruction against the poor, bulldozing houses and shacks and driving out informal traders in an operation ostensibly aimed at restoring law and order, but actually more about retribution against urban people who largely support the opposition.

The South African government has also dealt with township violence fairly. One demonstrator was killed last year by birdshot; three policemen are on trial for murder as a result. On the whole the police have tried to exercise restraint. In one case in Cape Town, demonstrators blocked a road over a number of days; in the end police simply stopped trying to move them and diverted traffic away from that route to an alternative.

Their humane policing methods contrast sharply with those used by the Mugabe regime in its attempt to drive the urban poor into the rural areas. One vendor in Bulawayo was beaten to death for resisting; people have been ordered to move or police would return with whips and dogs. Even an orphanage in Harare was not spared. One woman committed suicide after her two shops were burnt down.

South Africa's new deputy president Phumzila Mlambo-Ngcuka

The United Nations estimates over 200,000 people have been left on the streets in the middle of winter. A UN housing expert called it a new form of apartheid in housing, separating the rich from the poor.

The Solidarity Peace Trust, a group of Southern African church leaders campaigning for peace and justice in Zimbabwe, issued a strongly worded statement. "This brutal action, reminiscent of the apartheid security forces action against shack dwellers and informal traders in the 1980's in South Africa, is to be condemned in the strongest possible terms. The arrest and detention of thousands of street vendors around the country, for what the government calls illegal trading is both calculated and vindictive. Information at our disposal reveals that informal trading is the only source of income for these families, and taking away their livelihoods under the present economic climate is condemning them to starvation. We are also shocked at the deliberate mass destruction of informal settlements in various parts of the country in the middle of winter without due consideration for the welfare of the families that occupy them. According to eyewitness accounts (including statements received by the Solidarity Peace Trust), these people have been left absolutely destitute with no means of income generating or alternate accommodation."

A call by a broad alliance of opposition groups for a stay-away in protest of the operation flopped. It seems the spirit of the people for the moment is broken - not surprising, considering the level of retribution meted out against urban people by the regime for voting "the wrong way" in the last election, and the demoralising effect of the attitudes of SADC governments. The small percentage of Zimbabwean workers lucky enough to still have formal sector jobs were reluctant to risk these, and fearful of the Zimbabwean security forces carrying out their threats of reprisals. Their fear was intensified by helicopters hovering over the townships - put back in the air by the sale of spare parts from South Africa! At the same time teargas from Malawi was in use.

South African civil society protested that "The sale by Armscor of military parts to the Zimbabwean Government is an outrageous act of Southern African self defeatism. The National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NACC) set up to exercise political control over arms trade and transfers must be called to task over its failure to act against this sale. According to NACC policy transfers and trade of military equipment must be avoided where they would be likely to be used for the violation or suppression of human rights and fundamental freedoms to be used for purposes other than legitimate defence and security needs of the recipient country contribute to the escalation of regional conflicts."

The South African solidarity umbrella group said its members would be asking questions in the South African parliament and mobilising people against the sale of any arms and military equipment to Zimbabwe until the underlying political crisis was resolved.

The Zimbabwe Solidarity Forum ended with a call on "all progressive forces across the continent to speak out now and implore the Africa Union to assert itself as a credible protector of human security and establish itself as a legitimate actor in the struggle for a rebirth of our continent in general and Zimbabwe in particular."

With acknowledgements to Africa Today.