President Thabo Mbeki is expected to announce one of the toughest decisions of his term when he returns from Chile today: his verdict on the fate of his embattled deputy, Jacob Zuma.

A communiqué usually issued after cabinet’s regular Wednesday meetings was deferred until today, possibly to allow Mbeki to use it to announce his decision on Zuma’s future. Yesterday’s cabinet meeting was chaired by Zuma, who has been acting president since Tuesday.

Zuma’s refusal to resign following the conviction of his financial adviser, Schabir Shaik, means Mbeki has limited options to extricate government and the ruling African National Congress (ANC) from the crisis sparked by Shaik’s conviction and Zuma’s implication in corruption.

The ANC has not given Mbeki unequivocal backing on the Zuma matter, meaning he might have to fall back on state institutions — the presidency, the courts and the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) — to help him manage Zuma’s exit from cabinet.

Mbeki could also use the current crisis to effect a much-awaited cabinet reshuffle. Here he would have more than the crisis as his excuse. Public Works Minister Stella Sigcau is ill, and it is doubtful she will return to the cabinet.

Should Mbeki fire his deputy from the cabinet he is likely to face an unprecedented backlash from his party. Zuma’s troops have been rallying.

Yesterday a majority of ANC provinces came out in support of the call by Congress of South African Trade Unions and the ANC Youth League that Zuma be given a chance to defend his name. Even Gauteng, which traditionally hedges its bets, gave Zuma its support.

Sentiment in the lower ranks of the ANC has swung in Zuma’s favour, largely because of a belief that he is the victim of a political vendetta. This view goes beyond the ANC.

The South African Council of Churches said after meeting Zuma earlier this week that “state institutions were being used” to fight a political battle against Zuma, who was found by Judge Hilary Squires to have had a “generally corrupt” relationship with Shaik.

Mbeki might want to revisit some of the decisions he has taken in the course of this saga. Why, for example, did he allow former NPA head Bulelani Ngcuka to say in 2003 that he had prima facie evidence of graft against Zuma, but then not charge him?

ANC sources, including those who hold no truck with Zuma, say Ngcuka’s was a bad move as it lent credence to claims that the legal system was being used by Mbeki to achieve political ends.

Mbeki now has the difficult task of convincing SA he can act as a head of state — and not a politician with scores to settle with his rivals.

But it is not only the ANC Mbeki needs to worry about. His campaign for a fairer political and economic deal for Africa in the world hinges on his promise to help defeat the scourge of corruption on the continent. Mbeki has also expressed growing frustration over graft within the ANC and its adverse effect on service delivery in poor communities around the country.

It is no coincidence that the ANC’s national executive committee issued a strongly worded statement against corruption a week before the Shaik verdict was announced.

Meanwhile, support keeps pouring in for Zuma. ANC MPs sang his praises and clapped when Zuma entered the National Assembly to answer questions yesterday.

Speaker Baleka Mbete rescued him from a grilling by opposition parties over whether or not he would resign his office following the findings in the Shaik trial. Minutes before this, Shaik was sentenced to an effective 15 years in jail.

Democratic Alliance MP Douglas Gibson used a question about the Freedom Charter to ask whether or not the principles expressed in the charter had not been “subverted” by Zuma’s “involvement in corruption”.

Mbete ruled Gibson out of order, but he still demanded across the house: “Will you resign?”

Mbete said Gibson had asked for a substantive motion on confidence in the deputy president, and that she still had to rule on the matter.

This, she suggested, rendered further questions on the Zuma relationship with Shaik out of order.

“I am not going to let you sneak these questions in the back door,” Mbete said.

When Gibson and colleague Mike Ellis attempted to discuss her ruling, she said that she would not allow them to abuse Parliament.

Zuma sat stony-faced and made no response to Gibson’s attempt to engage him on his political future.

With acknowledgement to the Business Day.