Opinion & Analysis

The national general council of the African National Congress (ANC) will be remembered for the policy decisions it failed to make, and the crushing defeat President Thabo Mbeki and his coterie of technocrats suffered at the hands of those who are determined to immunise Jacob Zuma against the political effects of Mbeki’s decision to sack him from his cabinet.

The decision of the council to reject Zuma’s request to remain deputy president of the party in name only is not only an indication of growing tensions between sections of the party elite and the rank and file, but is also a sign of widening rifts within the upper echelons of the ruling party.

It also answers two questions some of us have been asking about the effect of the Zuma-Shaik affair. First, to the extent that Zuma’s credibility has been damaged, has such political damage occurred where it matters most, that is, within the alliance and the ANC? Second, if the wave of support for Zuma amounts to a revolt against Mbeki, is this support coming from members of the ANC who matter as far as the outcome of the presidential race is concerned?

On the basis of what transpired at the council meeting it is almost certain that Mbeki would not have been able to fire Zuma as deputy president of SA had he sought the approval of his party. When Mbeki made a decision that seemed to be in the best interests of the country, he was clearly not representing the wishes of most in the ANC. It may be for this reason that he did not take the logical step of challenging his party to review Zuma’s position as its deputy president.

The outcome of the council meeting suggests that Mbeki is becoming so isolated that he may end his term as a leader without a party. He seems to be going through an out-of-body experience with the ANC floating above his motionless body. At the council meeting he was faced with a situation where delegates were forced to choose between him and what they believed to be the real soul of the ANC. In other words, the ANC under his leadership has become as alien to them as the protest action of Zuma supporters is to his conception of the soul of the ANC. The national general council was, therefore, always going to reject any proposal that seemed to bear his mark.

But the battle is not only about what constitutes the soul of the ruling party, it is also about the nature of truth in politics. The soul of the ANC has always been a nebulous concept that eludes and defies definition. Some see the soul of the ANC as an objective reality that exists independently of the subjective political conduct of ANC members and their leaders. It is immutable and it transcends time, history and leadership styles.

It is constituted by values such as selflessness, sacrifice, collective leadership and willingness to subordinate self-interest to the will of the party. It represents all that is noble about the oppressed and their struggles. It is embodied in the exemplary lives of leaders such as Albert Luthuli and Nelson Mandela.

But the soul of the ANC under conditions of struggle came less under the attack of narrow political interests and manipulation of the truth than in the current conditions where politics has become a means towards economic ends for some within the ruling party.

The battle is, therefore, partly about who between Mbeki and Zuma epitomises those traditions and values of the ANC which reveal the essence of its soul.

Because of a real or imagined plot to undermine the former deputy president, the tone of the council meeting militated against engaging with issues of organisational redesign and labour market reform without linking Zuma’s fate to the alienation that is felt by many ordinary members of the ANC from Mbeki and structures of the party and the state.

The truth about the existence of a conspiracy against Zuma has become less important than the truth of how many are beginning to express their support for Zuma and antipathy towards Mbeki on the basis of what they believe.

In the words of author Claudio Magris, “The lie is quite as real as the truth, it works upon the world, transforms it.”

We will probably never know whether it is the truth or lies that have been working on the party — from allegations of spying against Bulelani Ngcuka, to his reasons for not prosecuting Zuma and Zuma’s insistence that he is a victim of political intrigue. What we know is that Mbeki’s notion of what is good for SA seems to be at variance with what many of his followers think is good for the ANC. Rightly or wrongly, the ANC has decided to defend Zuma from the consequences of Mbeki’s constitutional powers.

Does this mean that Mbeki will end his term as a lame-duck president of the ANC with his powers unfettered only in his capacity as president of the country?

I have argued that he is not a man who shies away from a challenge. The defeat Mbeki suffered at the council is not the end for him, but it does raise questions about whether he will retreat to the safety of the state machinery, since it is from this platform that he has won kudos for his work at home and abroad.

Matshiqi is an independent political analyst.

With acknowledgements to Aubrey Matshiqi and the Business Day.