Publication	Sunday Independent
Date	2005-10-23
Reporter	Opinion
Web link	www.sundayindependent.co.za

In an ironic play on newspaper headlines of the 1980s, we wonder how long it will be before we are treated to almost daily doses of "ANC split looms"?

Just as a split in the National Party into its right-wing and far-right-wing factions was seemingly forever on the cards - and inevitable - so now we look to the tensions within the present ruling party also to produce a political splintering.

Just a few months ago, it appeared that the backroom tactics of President Thabo Mbeki had consolidated an all-embracing concentration of power for Mbeki and his aides.

The widespread complaint was that power was too centralised; that the Mbeki presidency directly wielded far too much power for the likes of a democratic party.

But then came the Zuma explosion, with the firing of the deputy president unveiling deep divisions and rebellious factions within the supposedly tightly controlled ANC.

The watershed came at the party's national general council meeting at the end of June, when the party lashed out at the supposedly impregnable Mbeki, supporting Zuma as deputy president of the party and revealing deep-rooted unhappiness at the perceived remoteness of the man at its head.

From there on, the populist anger at Mbeki and his successful macro-economic policies has risen in volume, if not in quantity. This anger comes from the leftists of a party which, on many issues, has moved surprisingly far to the right of the ANC's own spectrum.

But the most popular leader in the eyes of rank-and-file is no shoe-in as the next leader of a party, if indeed Zuma does hold anything like the majority of support.

Just as in the dark days of the 1980s Pik Botha would have been the popular choice for prime minister among the ranks of the National Party, as opposed to the master schemer PW Botha, now the Mbeki strategists must be favoured to win the day in the battle for succession.

A conviction would rule Zuma out anyway - but the outcome of his corruption trial is far from certain, thanks to South Africa's separation of powers and rule of law.

His failings on Aids and failure so far to kick-start delivery that would assuage some of the anger of the Left notwithstanding, Mbeki, and not Zuma, is the man we back.

His economic policies have lifted South Africa into a position where it has the wherewithal to help the poor - now it needs the will to drive local government reform and deliver in the form of more jobs, houses and education, a working public health system and a social security net.

Mbeki needs a successor committed to building on his policies and expanding the economic revival throughout all sectors of South Africa.

The president's men and women, and not Zuma, are the people to lead South Africa forward.