Opinion & Analysis

They won’t say it in public, but supporters of former Deputy President Jacob Zuma are secretly labelling President Thabo Mbeki the main “engineer” of what they call a “political plot” to scupper Zuma’s chances of becoming the next president.

They have adamantly told the Sunday Times — on condition that their names are not published — that the relationship between Mbeki and Zuma has been “very uneasy” since 2001, when details of a letter written by the former president of the ANC Women’s League, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, to Zuma — asking him to help repair her damaged relationship with Mbeki — were leaked.

A senior ANC National Executive Committee member says Madikizela-Mandela’s letter caused great embarrassment to Mbeki, who blamed Zuma and his office for intentionally leaking it to the media.

At the time, police were already investigating an alleged “plot” to topple Mbeki — purportedly by senior ANC leaders.

It is now being claimed by Zuma’s camp that Zuma was one of those whose names were circulated in Mbeki’s inner circle as being among the plotters.

But former Safety and Security Minister Steve Tshwete did not name him in public. He did single out former ANC secretary-general Cyril Ramaphosa, Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa — former premiers of Gauteng and Mpumalanga respectively — as being behind attempts to remove Mbeki from power.

Before Tshwete named the three leaders, Zuma surprised all and sundry by publicly pledging allegiance to Mbeki and denying any ambition to challenge him for the presidency.

Zuma’s unsolicited, unexpected statement set tongues wagging.

Ramaphosa, Phosa and Sexwale had been asked by Tshwete to issue statements pledging allegiance to Mbeki. They refused as, they said, they had never conspired to unseat him in the first place.

It was after this refusal that the three businessmen were named by Tshwete in a television interview as being under police investigation for their alleged role in trying to topple Mbeki from power. It is still not clear why Zuma agreed to issue a statement.

“It’s only him who knows why he did that, but I can tell you that, since then, Mbeki never forgave Msholozi,” said an NEC member.

An ANC provincial leader from KwaZulu-Natal said his theory that a conspiracy exists against Zuma stems from the fact that, although former National Director of Public Prosecutions Bulelani Ngcuka briefed Mbeki about his investigation of Zuma’s allegedly corrupt involvement with Schabir Shaik, Mbeki did not warn Zuma.

“Why would Mbeki not tell his immediate deputy about such damaging allegations? We think he had a political agenda. He knew he was going to hang him out to dry,” he said.

Another theory being bandied about is that when Mbeki chose Zuma to become his deputy — ahead of other leading contenders such as Sexwale, Phosa and Madikizela-Mandela — he did not see him as a man who would later lean towards the left.

Known to be impatient with the radical left-wing groupings of the ANC-led alliance, Mbeki became uncomfortable with Zuma’s growing popularity among the leftists, say Zuma’s supporters — “he felt irritated that Zuma was continually punted as an alternative to his style of operation”.

An ANC official said: “While Mbeki criticised Cosatu and branded them ultra-leftists, Zuma refused to attack the left. While Mbeki was found wanting on HIV/Aids issues, Zuma became popular with HIV/Aids activists as he was prepared to listen to them.”

An NEC member said: “Mbeki knew that the Scorpions’ investigation into Zuma was finally going to give him ammunition to deal with the man who’d become his political nemesis.”

The fact that “the President has not denied speculation that he wants to stand for a third term as ANC president in 2007 supports a widespread suspicion within the movement that there is a deliberate attempt to scupper Msholozi’s chances of succession”, he said, adding: “Thabo wants to handpick his successor.”

With acknowledgements to Wally Mbhele and the Sunday Times.