The future of the African National Congress (ANC) and that of its deputy president, Jacob Zuma, seems destined to be determined by the judiciary. The brother to Schabir Shaik, lawyer Yunis Shaik, is correct in saying that the dismissal of his brother’s appeal by the Supreme Court of Appeal will shape the political destiny of our country to the extent that it will determine who becomes president of the ANC in 2007 and of SA in 2009.

The criticism that has been levelled against him is based on the belief that certain truths may become self-fulfilling prophecies and should, therefore, not be spoken. Yet he is not wrong in surmising that the response to what may happen to Zuma, and how this will affect his political future, is bound to the future of all South Africans.

While in the minds of some this sounds like a doomsday scenario, there is no outcome of the ruling party’s succession battle that is inevitable or unavoidable. Our future is not written in the stars. But we must take heed of the warning to the Nigerian nation from scholar Ebere Onwudiwe when he says: “We are now at an important juncture in the future of democracy in this country. What happens in 2007 will determine whether our democracy is consolidated or derailed.”

The protagonists in the theatre of succession must remember that while the outcomes of political battles are not written in the stars, human agency will determine whether our democratic project is “consolidated” or “derailed”. These actors include the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA), the judiciary and the criminal justice system.

But it is the ANC I am concerned about the most. When Zuma was relieved of his duty as deputy president of the country, I wrote on these pages that the ANC would never be the same again. This I believe more today than I did then because of what has since passed. It seems to me the succession imbroglio is less about implications for individuals and more about the future of the ruling party itself. A lot of what has happened since 1994 and during the succession battle is beginning to demythologise the ANC. The identity of the ANC as the custodian of all that is good in creating a post-apartheid society is under attack. During the liberation struggle, the ANC represented a kind of utopian future for the oppressed and downtrodden majority. To the white people who joined the struggle it symbolised a racial paradise where black and white would jointly work for a prosperous future.

The leaders of the liberation movement epitomised a sense of morality and social justice that was almost messianic. While no organisation or group of leaders can live up to such lofty standards because of the human condition, this view of the ANC was all the oppressed had. This mythical narrative of liberation kept a people together and made them strong and defiant in the face of apartheid brutality because it was based on a vision of selflessness and human freedom. This mythologised ANC became our reality.

This reality is being corroded by the vicissitudes of the succession battle and never-ending allegations of corruption against senior leaders of the ruling ANC. Who is betraying the vision of the ANC that millions have cherished for so long and which sustained them during the dark days of racial oppression? The answer depends on how we see the ANC. Do we see it as an objective reality in conflict with the subjective interests of its members? Or as a clash of identities, with the messianic and moral dimension coming into increasing conflict with the emergent cold, calculating and opportunistic dimension of its complex identity?

The clash of identities is manifest in the smear and countersmear campaigns, which are also indicative of the extent to which corruption allegations have become a potent weapon in contests for political and economic power. Interestingly, the succession battle is beginning to provide shelter to leaders who may actually be guilty of corruption. The battle has reached a stage where the innocent can be tarnished with allegations of corruption, and the corrupt can confer on themselves the status of “victim” by invoking conspiracies and the memories of struggle icons in their defence. The succession battle, therefore, is partly about an attempt by different agendas to project themselves as the protectors of the mythical ANC, the ANC which transcends the vagaries of human failings.

The 2007 national conference of the ANC gives the party the opportunity to remythologise itself. The conference will undoubtedly mark the conclusion of an epic battle between the Zuma and Mbeki camps. But I hope in the months to come we shall see a battle between good and evil. Whether the good are located within or outside the two camps, may they triumph because our future depends on them.

Matshiqi is senior associate political analyst, Centre for Policy Studies

With acknowledgement to Aubrey Matshiqi and Business Day.