Publication: The Witness Issued: Date: 2005-06-14 Reporter: Reporter:

Mbeki to Break his Silence

 

Publication 

The Witness
Date 2005-06-14

Reporter

 Own Correspondents

Web Link

www.witness.co.za

 

President calls special sitting of Parliament; Zuma to attend

At 2 pm on Tuesday, President Thabo Mbeki will announce Deputy President Jacob Zuma's fate in Parliament.

And Zuma will be looking him squarely in the eye while he is doing so. The deputy president's office has confirmed that he will attend the session.

After 10 days of speculation, agitation and uncertainty, presidential spokesman Bheki Khumalo confirmed on Monday that Mbeki has called a special sitting of the National Assembly and the National Council of Provinces regarding "all matters arising from the Shaik court case".

This brings an end to the uncertainty cloaked in presidential silence since Judge Hilary Squires found that a "generally corrupt relationship" existed between Zuma and Shaik. Ever since, Zuma and his supporters have maintained he is innocent and did not have the opportunity to state his case in court.

ANC MPs and sources in the ANC's headquarters increasingly believe Mbeki, who plays his cards close to the chest, is going to pull the rug from under Zuma. This follows a meeting yesterday at the ANC's head office, Luthuli House, attended by Mbeki, Zuma and other ANC leaders. Zuma left the meeting more than two hours before the rest.

While the ANC maintains its official position that there is no discord, ANC MPs kept up a steady stream of SMSs *1, speculating on Mbeki's stance.

"This can only mean Zuma has resigned or has been asked to resign because criminal charges are pending," a member of the ANC's national executive committee said. "It must be big, else Mbeki would have called a media conference," a senior ANC MP remarked.

Zuma's position in the ANC could be difficult because, although Mbeki can sack him as deputy president, only a disciplinary committee can suspend him as the ANC's deputy leader. In political circles the opinion is that it would be dangerous to guess what Mbeki intends doing but he basically has three options.

The first is to say the legal process should follow its course and to leave Zuma's position unchanged. This is possible but unlikely, given Zuma's inciting of supporters and the negative repercussions for the country's image abroad.

The second, and most likely, option is to temporarily remove Zuma from his position and not appoint a substitute until a charge is brought against him.

This could still take time. Even though the National Prosecuting Authority will be meeting on Tuesday, an announcement about prosecution is not expected soon.

The third option is to sack Zuma on Tuesday, which is unlikely, given the discord it would cause within the ANC, but not impossible.

If Mbeki does suspend and replace Zuma on Tuesday, ANC MPs believe he will announce an "interim substitute". Later, it will be difficult to shuffle this substitute again when the time comes to find a successor to Mbeki. Apparently, ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe is Mbeki's personal first choice. His appointment would also satisfy the SACP. Motlanthe's lack of parliamentary experience counts against him.

Another possibility is Nosiyiwe Mapisa-Nqakula, president of the ANC Women's League. But the ANC's clever money is on a "hierarchical", and thus safe, choice - Mosiuoa Lekota who, as national chairman, is the most senior member in the ANC after Mbeki and Zuma. *2

With acknowledgements to Duncan du Bois and The Witness.


*1       In the jungle, the mighty jungle...............the SMSs spread the elephants' messages.

*2      Lekota could only be a permanent substitute, not an interim one.

If there is indeed an interim appointment, it will be someone outside cabinet, e.g. the Secretary-General.

How's the weather in Perth in June?

And Brisbane in January?