Publication: Cape Times Issued: Date: 2006-12-08 Reporter:

SA Political Cauldron Comes Alive

 

Publication 

Cape Times

Date

2006-12-08

Web Link

www.capetimes.co.za

 

In this book, political analyst Richard Calland has sought to bring South African politics vividly to life rather than offer readers dry analysis.

He has succeeded in producing a readable narrative, personalising the political power game in South Africa.

Whether his account will please the people concerned and Calland's academic peers remains to be seen.

While concentrating on personalities certainly enhances readability, it may be open to criticism on grounds of superficiality.

The author has limited his account to the national level. And there are important omissions, presumably on account of constraints of time and space.

He has not included special chapters on the armed services, the parastatals and the Reserve Bank and he especially regrets not writing a special chapter on the National Intelligence Agency "because the spooks continue to interfere with the 'normal' operation of power in South Africa, exerting significant influence".

For the rest, this book offers a most useful account of the changing power relations in the country. It went to press in July this year and so does not take account of the most recent developments.

Calland says the succession battle in the ANC will have an unpredictable, though potentially a very substantial impact on power over the next five years. He believes a split in the ANC Alliance remains possible but is still unlikely.

He sees danger ahead if the trends in the first decade of ANC rule are sustained, with the equality gap widening and employment rising and the vast majority of black people still impoverished.

The new South African establishment is dominated by the most powerful capitalists - new and old - but the battle for conclusive control of power has just begun, he says.

Some members of the new elite are committed to social transformation, which is sometimes used as a euphemism for socialism.

Calland identifies six vital organs of power: the presidency; the National Treasury; transnational corporations as well as domestic big business; new informal networks that criss-cross the politics-business divide; and, finally, civil society, policy think tanks, and especially Cosatu and the new emergent social movements.

In the presidency, he makes a distinction between influence and power and sees Mbeki's |legal advisor, Mojanku Gumbi, as perhaps the single most influential member of the team. After Mbeki, says Calland, Joel Netshitendzhe is the second most powerful person in South Africa.

Calland's "batting order" of political power is: Mbeki, Netshitendzhe, finance minister Trevor Manuel, Gumbi, public enterprises minister Alec |Irwin, minister in the presidency Essop Pahad, and now, the deputy president, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.

Monitoring the interplay between big business, government and the ANC will offer the most useful insights into the exercise of power in the new South Africa, he says.

The institution of Parliament does not rate highly in his anatomy of power, but Calland believes the portfolio committee system offers great potential, although its record has been uneven.

Calland castigates the "disgraceful way" in which the ANC handled parliament's oversight of the arms deal and its closing down of dissent in the Select Committee on Public Accounts.

This, he says, "not only set new standards in political cynicism, but degraded a hitherto effective and efficient |committee".

There is an engaging |chapter on the media headed "More spinned against than spinning?" which gives great credit to the weekly Mail and Guardian, and there are also chapters on the ANC, the |Alliance, the public service, the opposition, the judiciary and civil society.

The chapter on the ANC was written before some of the more recent revelations concerning Jacob Zuma, the commissioner of police Selebi and others - revelations which might suggest that the ANC is in danger of becoming enveloped in sleaze and internal strife.

However, the ANC's basic political culture does not change much. In a most useful discussion of the way the ANC works, Calland says that the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC matters a great deal. Doing well in the election for members of the NEC allows someone like Cyril Rhamaphosa, who has been out of active politics since 1996, to maintain his standing and |status in the ANC.

The top 20 NEC members, as elected by rank and file members at the national conference, include Trevor Manuel, in first place, Rhamaphosa, in second place, as well as Kader Asmal, Frene Ginwala, Winnie Mandela, Pallo Jordan, and Thoko Didiza, as well as Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and minister of public service and administration, Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi.

The NEC's main sub-|committee, the powerful |National Working Committee (NWC) meets weekly and has 15 members as well as the office bearers.

The chapter on the Alliance examines the personalities and attitudes which make Cosatu and the South African Communist Parties important players in the power game.

Calland notes the support of Jacob Zuma by the leadership of both organisations, but not necessarily of all the rank and file.

The Zuma issue overshadows everything else. South Africa has been thrown into a "cauldron of frothing uncertainty", says Calland. The period leading up to the ANC's 2007 national conference, when the ANC will choose Mbeki's successor, will be a rough ride.

With acknowledgement to Cape Times.