Opinion & Analysis

The first of three of SA’s S101new-generation Ger-man-made submarines will sail into Simonstown this morning, marking one of the final steps in the creation of the country’s new navy. Four frigates — general-purpose warships which can be armed with guided missiles — have already been delivered and two more submarines will be in service within about two years.

Claims of irregularities in parts of the contract for the frigates, the lack of transparency in the industrial offset programme, the fact that it is very unlikely that the fleet will be used in peacekeeping, and just its sheer cost set against the country’s development needs have made the buildup in naval power controversial. And to the chagrin of the Democratic Alliance and many defence analysts, a fifth frigate may be ordered.

The South African Navy now has more firepower and reach than it has had in its history and is the only navy in sub-Saharan Africa that comes close to comparison with those of any other that can be considered “serious”. The navy’s reach is minimal compared with that of the US, but SA has entered into the “blue water” category, allowing for sustained operations well beyond our shores.

With the obsolescence en bloc of the navy’s ships built up during the apartheid era, the decision had to be made whether to have a fleet worthy of a regional power. The speed of the acquisitions, the appropriateness of the components of the fleet and various other facets can be debated, but there is a compelling argument that SA needs a navy worthy of regional power, even given that the use of frigates and submarines in peacekeeping, SA’s main military task currently, is unlikely.

Above all, the argument for a navy worthy of regional power is that if we have no credible naval power, the vacuum created may be filled by other powers which could pose, if not an immediate, at least an existential threat to SA at some stage.

Deep-dive attack submarines have to be part of any credible navy. Submarines give the ability to patrol and fight beneath the seas as well as potentially land special forces into coastal areas. Having submarines is essentially about deterrence because they can operate undetected, creating enormous uncertainties about their presence for any potential adversary and are an ideal platform for intelligence gathering at sea.

In military terms, they also provide a significant “power multiplier” in that, for instance, they allow the surface fleet to be kept down in size and to make it more effective. And in the seas off the Cape where cold and warm ocean currents mix, there are multiple gradients of temperature which make submarines especially difficult to detect, providing an added value in potential deterrence. The South African Navy boasts that in exercises with foreign fleets its now decommissioned Daphne-class submarines were never detected.

The widely asked question now is who the adversary is that makes all this firepower necessary?

The answer is, of course, there is none; but within the 30-year life span of such weapon systems an adversary could arise and manning and training of submarine crews takes a long time. SA has been without submarine capability since 2003, when the last of the three French-made Daphne-class submarines were taken out of service, and if our navy had been without submarines for much longer the infrastructure and capabilities necessary to maintain and use them would have been lost.

The Type 209 submarines that SA is acquiring are the world’s most exported submarine. When SA’s submarine order is completed, about 70 of them will have been built for 13 different navies over 40 years. What has changed during this period are weapon systems, their size, increases in underwater endurance and diving depth and, most importantly for a submarine, the smaller amount of noise it emits, which reduces chances of detection.

The 209s SA is receiving are generations ahead of the Daphne class, which were based on Second World War technology. The Daphne was not usually submerged for more than two days; the Type 209s, depending on speed, can remain underwater for about a week. One of the most significant improvements in the S101 South African submarine over its predecessor is the combat suite — the centre which processes sonar, periscope and other data sources and from which commands for weapon launches are given.

The Type 209s have four diesel engines to power the boat on the surface and recharge a substantial rack of batteries — much like those in a car except a lot larger and designed for use under water. The submarine has eight tubes which can be used to launch torpedoes as well as lay mines. The design of the tubes allows for a later retrofit to allow the submarine to fire missiles, which could turn the vessel into a potent means of surface attack, particularly if the missiles have a long range.

The navy has not announced any plans for these and declines to discuss the matter as it would signal an aggressive posture and one that SA is not keen to give.

The other widely asked question — an eternal one for peace time navies — is what do they do?

A great deal of effort is placed in crew training and maintaining readiness, particularly with submarines, and there will be manoeuvres with foreign navies such as those from Brazil and India which also have Type 209s. Then there is their potential role in spotting fishing trawlers in the act of pulling nets out of our waters. It could the case that SA’s submarines may be part of a naval picket to deter piracy off the Somali coast or undertake visits to the oil fields off west Africa to maintain a presence, although government is saying nothing about specifics.

Then there is the question of what the admirals are eyeing next to build up their “balanced navy”. It is a landing ship that can carry both troops and helicopters. After that it will be weapons upgrades and in 30 years’ time SA will again face the problem of bulk obsolescence of its navy.

An incremental build up may have been more prudent and politically a lot less difficult. What is to be expected over the next few years, however, is our participation in naval exercises and, of course, flying the flag.

With acknowledgement to Jonathan Katzenellenbogen and Business Day.