Publication: Sunday Independent Issued: Date: 2007-04-29 Reporter: Christelle Terreblanche

Zuma No Longer The Great Contender in Eastern Cape

 

Publication 

Sunday Independent

Date

2007-04-29

Reporter

 Christelle Terreblanche

Web Link

www.sundayindependent.co.za

 

The formal call on President Thabo Mbeki to make himself available for a third term as ANC president was a sign that the tide against Jacob Zuma had turned.

This was the opinion of both commentators and ANC insiders in the Eastern Cape, where on Freedom Day a provincial congress resolution turned into a formal request to Mbeki to enter the ruling party's leadership race.

In what appeared to have been a united move by the Eastern Cape ANC, which appeared squarely behind Zuma less than a year ago, Stone Sizani, its new chairperson, put the request to Mbeki when he opened the provincial ANC offices in King William's Town.

An enthusiastic crowd held up three fingers to indicate what Mbeki should do, shouting "third term", "third term".

Mbeki in turn put up 10 fingers, a signal read by some members as a loaded response in that he confirmed that there was no limit to the terms a person could stand for the top job.

Mbeki, however, neither declined nor accepted verbally.

"Look, I was born in the ANC [and therefore] I will die in the ANC," he said. A lone poster in the crowd declared: "Thabo Mbeki, president for life."

Last week Zuma, the ANC deputy president, had less ambiguously indicated that he would stand for the ANC presidency even if he was to be charged for corruption again.

KwaZulu-Natal is the only province to have declared its support for Zuma to stand, but it is being supported by the ANC Youth League and Young Communist League. The Communist Party and Cosatu are divided on the issue.

"I have no doubt that the tide has turned [away from Zuma]," Harald Pakendorf, a veteran political commentator, said yesterday. "I have no doubt that Zuma won't make it, whether charged or not. I think he must accept defeat.

"One must never confuse noise with influence and neither the masses nor the senior ANC men and women will elect a leader who is a democratic myth."

Keith Gottschalk, the head of political studies at the University of the Western Cape, agreed that the Zuma support had appeared stronger than it probably was because it was mobilised in a populist way, while Mbeki's supporters had until now made no attempt to counter-mobilise.

A number of highly placed ANC sources in the Eastern Cape said the reversal of support was because a large section of the party had "woken up" to the shortcomings of a Zuma presidency.

"What appeared to have been support for Zuma and the possibility that he could become president seems to have been shaken up with many branches now feeling that it could be disastrous," said one.

Another, also speaking off the record, said he and others shifted their support from Zuma as a way of managing the quandary that a future Zuma presidency might present. A number of ANC regions in the Eastern Cape are, however, believed to be deeply dissatisfied and still disputing the outcome of the December provincial congress elections, which saw all positions filled by Mbeki allies.

Valli Moosa, an ANC national executive member deployed to the Eastern Cape, said that there was no indication of divisions in the Eastern Cape over the request and that the allegations of election irregularities "were marginal" and "not in the order that would warrant a reconstitution of leadership".

"It is being dealt with," he said.

Sizani denied that there was any real opposition to the request in the province. He claimed those calling for Mbeki's nomination had "very serious support" from other provinces for him to stand for a third term and acknowledged that was also some serious lobbying to get everyone on board.

He refused to says where the support came from, stating that it was impossible to speak for other provinces.

ANC leaders in other provinces, however, refused to divulge whether they would support the Eastern Cape call or indeed whether they had been lobbied. All, including Gauteng, which is believed to be in favour of a Mbeki third term, stuck to the official line that nominations by branches would open only after the June policy conference.

Provinces will discuss consolidated branch positions and try to influence one another at a special forum of provincial ANC secretaries, convened by Mcebisi Skwatsha, the Western Cape secretary.

"Gauteng has not been approached by either KwaZulu-Natal or the Eastern Cape to support their positions," said David Makhura, the Gauteng ANC secretary. "We have taken a different approach by discussing the principles of leadership first."

Other provincial leaders echoed this, including those from the Free State and the Western Cape, who are believed to be among those most divided over Zuma and Mbeki.

Senzo Mchunu, the ANC's KwaZulu-Natal secretary, confirmed that the provincial party was sticking to its support for Zuma and would only start lobbying in the forum once nominations had been formally made.

Mchunu also denied that there were serious tensions in the province over Zuma. The ANC national executive held a crisis meeting with provincial structures earlier this week after newspaper reports that parts of KwaZulu-Natal were in danger of becoming no-go zones for Mbeki.

It appears a lid has since been put on the dissent because party representatives have gone to ground.

With acknowledgements to Christelle Terreblanche and Sunday Independent.


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