Year of the Great Divide [Sunday Times, 2006-12-24]

Publication: Sunday Times Issued: Date: 2006-12-24 Reporter: Wally Mbhele Reporter: Xolani Xundu Reporter: Paddy Harper

Year of the Great Divide

Publication	Sunday Times
Date	2006-12-24
Reporter	Wally Mbhele Xolani Xundu Paddy Harper
Web Link	www.sundaytimes.co.za

'Unless we cease to see each other as enemies in a debate, those conferences are going to become battlegrounds ruthlessly contested’

The fight between Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma will underpin everything on the 2007 political calendar, write Wally Mbhele, Xolani Xundu and Paddy Harper.

‘There is no love lost, no prospect of reconciliation between them. They can’t even look each other in the eye. As we move into 2007, the crisis has become worse.”

That is how one ANC leader describe s the relationship between President Thabo Mbeki and ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma on the eve of what is probably the most crucial year in the movement’s 95 -year history.

Eleven months from now, on the campus of the University of Limpopo in Polokwane, the battle that has divided the ANC and South Africa will reach its climax. The occasion will be the ANC’s 52nd national congress, where a successor to Mbeki, who has been ANC president since 1997, will be elected.

The fight has so far been brutal and, according to ANC insiders, no one is going to give any quarter.

South Africa’s political landscape in 2007 will be circumscribed by the succession struggle.

The countdown of what promises to be an eventful year will begin in two weeks when Mbeki gives his annual ANC anniversary address on on January 8 .

He is expected to indicate how the party hopes to navigate through the turmoil that has characterised it since he fired Zuma from his Cabinet, and to touch on the party’s policy conference, set for June or July.

The road towards both the policy and national conferences is not going to be easy. Both conferences will be key in determining the future, and ANC insiders expect both to be contentious.

“Unless we cease to see each other as enemies in a debate, those conferences are going to become battlegrounds where every major policy and leadership issue will be ruthlessly contested,” says one.

Both Mbeki and Zuma must be facing the new year with trepidation after the events of the past year.

Mbeki could be weakened politically if he fails to act against National Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi, a known ally. Selebi, whose friendship with arrested alleged crime kingpin Glenn Agliotti has prompted calls for his axing, has, astonishingly, received Mbeki’s backing. ANC insiders claim such support stems from the fact that Mbeki can’t afford to lose such a key ally, especially not after his falling out with former Intelligence boss Billy Masetlha, another ally.

Could it be that Mbeki fears that, if the National Prosecuting Authority decides to charge him, Selebi could simply walk over to the Zuma camp and portray himself as another Mbeki victim ?

But there are some in the ANC who regard Selebi as a “puppet destined to lose his usefulness to Mbeki” as soon as the Agliotti trial goes to court.

In private, he has been accused of being a “useful idiot”.

Selebi is still remembered as the man who used state resources, in the form of the police, to investigate the now infamous alleged coup plot against Mbeki (supposedly by ANC leaders Cyril Ramaphosa, Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa). This is still cited as an example of how key Selebi was in Mbeki’s alleged purge of ANC opponents during the early years of his presidency.

Ironically, the ANC internal commission that is trying to mend the divisions within the party is believed to have heard intensive evidence on the “coup plot” in an attempt to determine whether Mbeki himself contributed to splits in the party.

The party is being secretive about developments in the internal investigation , but it has been whispered in ANC corridors that its findings are likely to deliver a blow to Mbeki’s apparent ambitions of seeking re-election for a third term as ANC president.

Similarly, Zuma is not going to be spared censure by the commission, chaired by party veteran Josiah Jele.

At the moment, a lonely Mbeki appears to be drawing his support from ANC provincial structures in parts of the Eastern Cape, North West, Limpopo and Gauteng.

However, Limpopo, Gauteng and North West will make their preferences for party president known only after their provincial conferences next year .

KwaZulu-Natal was the first to announce that it would back Zuma for the party’s presidency .

Eastern Cape recently adopted a motion of confidence in Mbeki, but the Free State, Western Cape, Northern Cape and Mpumalanga are keeping their cards close to their chests.

It is significant to note that, in as much as Mbeki appears to be entering 2007 in a weak position, his opponents are no stronger.

The ANC Youth League and the South African Communist Party and its Young Communist League have in recent months been rocked by differences over their support for Zuma. It remains to be seen whether they will have resolved these by the time the ANC goes to its national conference.

The legal woes besetting Zuma are not likely to be over by the time the conference takes place in December.

Firstly, the appeals by the NPA against court orders overturning the warrants authorising raids on Zuma’s home and the offices of his lawyers will be heard by the Supreme Court of Appeal by late March at the earliest.

Similarly, an appeal by Zuma’s former co-accused in his corruption trial, French arms dealer Thint against its loss in a parallel appeal stemming from the August 2005 raids will be heard at the same time.

Further, an application by the NPA to have the Mauritian authorities release original documentation crucial to the case against Zuma was last week set down for March 22 and 23 in the Pietermaritzburg High Court.

And Zuma’s former financial adviser, Durban businessman Schabir Shaik, last week made an application to the Constitutional Court for leave to appeal against his conviction and 15-year jail sentence for corruption and fraud.

Shaik failed in his appeal to the Supreme Court of Appeal against both conviction and sentence.

What this means is that the NPA can charge Zuma only when the above matters have been finalised, and this is likely to take until around April next year.

The NPA’s bosses have made it clear that they intend charging Zuma again.

Pietermaritzburg High Court Judge Qed’usizi Msimang struck the case off the roll in September over issues around the admissibility of evidence, stemming from the applications around the 2005 raids.

Prosecutors and investigators also confirm that they have not been told to stand down on the investigations into Zuma.

In fact, the process of consolidating the evidence against him is continuing.

For the state, first prize is to charge him with corruption stemming from payments from Shaik and others right up until the time of the raids. It will manage the case this way if it wins the appeals.

If it loses, the state will go back to charging Zuma over the R1.38- million payments and the attempt to solicit a R1-million bribe from Thint, charges which saw Shaik jailed for 15 years.

The likelihood is that, should Zuma accept nomination for the ANC presidency in December, he will do so with a potential 15-year jail sentence hanging over his head. Given this, the talk from his camp about him standing down and anointing a chosen successor on whose behalf he would campaign within the ANC holds more currency.

Zuma himself has repeatedly stated that he is not neccessarily seeking to become ANC president, a statement which may yet be used by his backers to demobilise the massive groundswell of support they have generated for the ANC deputy president when nominating an alternative candidate.

But convincing the masses that another candidate and not Zuma himself should contest the ANC presidency may prove a difficult task, particularly given the cult following that has developed around him since he was charged with corruption last June.

Coming a few months before the national conference, Zuma’s possible indictment is also likely to reinforce perceptions that he is being charged to prevent him from assuming the party’s presidency and ultimately that of the country in 2009.

As a result of legal challenges and the continuing Scorpions’ investigation into the Zuma saga, it is most probable that, by the time the ANC goes to its conference in December, the case will not have been finalised.

This will leave it with a huge challenge on its hands.

Firstly, an easier option would be for the party to invoke its constitution and code of conduct to effectively bar Zuma from running for the ANC presidency on the grounds that he is facing charges of corruption in the courts.

Another scenario could see Zuma accepting nomination as president while still standing trial for corruption . Some ANC branches might opt for this in an attempt to deepen the crisis over succession in the ANC and make Mbeki’s remaining time a living hell.

In a last-ditch effort to heal the wounds to the party, there is a likelihood that other candidates for the ANC presidency will emerge in the new year.

The old United Democratic Front is understood to be regrouping in an attempt to push forward a compromise candidate.

The names of Ramaphosa and Sexwale have been mooted as possible candidates to bridge the divide.

The mild-mannered party strategist, Joel Netshitenzhe, has also been suggested, although he has long made it known that he is not interested in becoming ANC president. His opponents have also criticised him for being too close to Mbeki.

There is also the abrasive Defence Minister, Mosiuoa Lekota, who remains one of the favourites among ANC activists associated with the former UDF.

With acknowledgements to Wally Mbhele, Xolani Xundu, Paddy Harper and Sunday Times.