'It is conceivable that Zuma could win a landslide *1'

It is no accident that Zuma has taken centre stage in the national presidential stakes. Surrounding himself with an eclectic group of right-hand people - from big business names to what some see as more dubious characters - Zuma has steadily fashioned himself as an alternative to President Thabo Mbeki - a people's champion and a leader for the voiceless.

Few would have believed in 2005 that Zuma would still be in the running to lead the ANC. Not after having been removed as the deputy president of the country in 2005 and facing a damaging rape charge (of which he was found innocent).

Even now, the cloud of possible corruption charges still hangs over him.

But, until Gauteng tycoon Tokyo Sexwale recently entered the race, Zuma was seemingly the only candidate for the showdown at the ANC's conference scheduled for December.

His unannounced campaign is clearly being shaped by various players who have cleverly ensured that Zuma has stayed in the limelight, grabbing every opportunity to expose him to diverse constituencies.

They have shrewdly portrayed Zuma as a victim of a political conspiracy, one that seeks to stop him from being the president of the ANC and of the country.

Building Zuma as a "man of the people" in contrast to Mbeki, who is generally seen as being rather aloof, the Zuma spin doctors have sought to strengthen the former deputy president's appeal among his supporters.

Spearheaded by those who have positioned themselves on the left of the ANC, they see in Zuma an opportunity to create a champion of the voiceless.

His allies are particularly influential in organisations like Cosatu, the SACP, the ANC Youth League and the Young Communist League, where there has been frustration with Mbeki's perceived move away from Reconstruction and Development Programme or leftish economic policies to the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (Gear) model.

Other supporters include people who feel rejected by Mbeki or those who believe that Mbeki is leading the ANC away from its core constituency.

Even before Zuma's rape trial began, a group comprised mainly of legal, business and political activists set up the Friends of Jacob Zuma trust fund to raise funds for his legal expenses.

Although there have been reports about the ineffectiveness of the trust, it is still running.

With the launch of its website, the focus of the trust has since moved towards the branding of "Project JZ". It is here that his supporters post messages of support, lambast his accusers and sing the praises of their hero.

The campaign apparently has several dimensions, each appealing to different constituencies.

There was his public HIV test, clearly a move to reduce the damage done after his infamous shower comments during the rape trial.

Zuma has met with groups as diverse as the Afrikaans community, sharing beers and boerewors with the likes of Leon Schuster and Steve Hofmeyer.

Then he accepted an honorary title as "reverend" from a pentecostal church group.

He also addressed large gatherings of church groups, whose congregations may well be unhappy with the ANC's progressive stance on same-sex issues and abortion.

While Zuma is extremely popular in KwaZulu-Natal, his national support base remains untested.

"Given his mass appeal and growing popularity, it is conceivable that Zuma could win a landslide should the ANC elections be held today," Zakhele Ndlovu, a University of KwaZulu-Natal political analyst, said.

But, bearing in mind that the succession issue will only be settled at the ANC's national conference in Limpopo in December, Ndlovu cautioned that six months was "far away" and that anything could happen to tip the scales against Zuma.

"The growing perception of his victimisation has turned Msholozi (Zuma) into some kind of a cult hero whose suffering has caused the ANC some pains.

"His fate will certainly have a significant impact not only on the ANC but on our nascent democracy," said Ndlovu.

While the initiatives of the Zuma's brains trust have all the hallmarks of an election campaign, much could change in the intervening period.

A day is a long time in politics.


• This article was originally published on page 10 of The Mercury on June 05, 2007

With acknowledgements to Sipho Kumalo and Independent Online.