Publication: Cape Argus Issued: Date: 2007-11-09 Reporter: Moshoeshoe Monare

This Is Why Zuma Wants Presidency So Badly

 

Publication 

Cape Argus
Date

2007-11-09
Reporter Moshoeshoe Monare

Web Link

www.capeargus.co.za

 

The Supreme Court of Appeal's verdict may have unsettled prominent lobbyists of ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma, but the decision will toughen his supporters' resolve to stand by him.

The court dismissed an appeal by Zuma and Thint against a decision to issue a letter of request to the Mauritian authorities to furnish the National Prosecuting Authority with documents related to arms deal corruption claims.

If the NPA charges Zuma, which is likely, it will boost the slogan: "Noma bayasibopha ... siyaya eLimpopo. (Even when they arrest us, we're going to Limpopo"). It is an old battle song coined to mean that Zuma's corruption case will not deter them from electing him at the national conference next month.

But lobbyists are worried about what will happen if a serving president of the ANC or the country (if elected) is convicted.

"We will cross that bridge when we get there," says ANC Youth League president Fikile Mbalula reiterating the league's support for Zuma.

Another Zuma lobbyist and ANC NEC member - who spoke on condition of anonymity - says it would be logical to think of "an alternative tactic, but it will be highly suicidal to do it now".

"This trial emanated from a political persecution. If you say Zuma must face the music, you are saying it is right for people to be prosecuted on political grounds. We will never do that," he says.

This is why, he admits, those sympathising with Zuma point to the origin of this case rather than its current status.

"We are concerned that the length of the investigation into Comrade Zuma, and the manner in which it has been conducted, compromises the credibility of this process and only acts to reinforce a widely held perception that this is indeed a political trial," said an SA Communist Party statement.

Cosatu released a statement with a similar tone. "All this deepens our suspicion that at the time when Zuma was charged and dismissed there was no case to answer, and the NPA and Scorpions had to start desperately searching for some evidence. We are dealing with a concerted politically inspired campaign aimed at destroying the political career of the Deputy President."

Mbalula had the same line of reasoning. "We question this trial-at-all-costs method. Why are they spending millions to recover the so-called R500 000 that was never received or solicited by anyone?"

The ANC's statement did not express "disappointment" normally associated with such rulings against its senior leaders. Instead, the party tacitly appeared to favour a trial. "We respect the court's decision ... the law must be allowed to take its course," it said.

But for Zuma lobbyists, or as shown at the 2005 national general council who reacted angrily against President Thabo Mbeki's dismissal of Zuma, the Supreme Court's decision or if he is charged, will prod members to vote for him at the conference.

On the other hand, some leaders and members are likely to question his suitability to lead. They will quote this clause from Through The Eye of the Needle leadership document: "A leader should lead by example. He should be above reproach in his political and social conduct ...

"Through force of example, he should act as a role model ... Leading a life that reflects ... not only being free of corrupt practices; but also actively fighting against corruption."

If this was a constitutional document and applied to the letter, Zuma - if he is charged - will be barred from standing as president.

"Some will want to use this (the court decision) against JZ to define leadership," says Mbalula. He admitted later that he was referring to ANC chairperson Mosiuoa Lekota who has criticised Zuma on several occasions.

But, says Mbalula, no rule in the ANC constitution bars one from standing because he is accused of a crime.

But Mbeki campaigners - who are cautious of the ripple effect of a Zuma arrest - hope this will prop up their candidate's support for a third term.

"(Zuma) is finished, and (businessman and presidential aspirant) Tokyo (Sexwale) is not a factor," says an influential lobbyist who refused to be named.

If Zuma falls, he will try to drag Mbeki with him. He has already indicated that he will call the president as a witness.

Zuma at the time wrote a letter saying he would go to court and "tell the truth". At that stage, a furious Mbeki wanted to write an affidavit in reaction to Zuma's imputation that the president knew about the arms deal business.

If Mbeki is called to the stand the ANC's two most senior leaders are likely to be tainted by this corruption case.

Sexwale is opportunistically aware of this scenario. He is aware that Zuma - while he may win in Limpopo - could face criminal charges. He knows that Mbeki could be hauled to the trial, or rejected by delegates at the conference.

That is why he is vehemently, through lobbyists, trying to trade-off with the Zuma camp and, to a lesser extent, Mbeki campaigners.

Sexwale hopes, say those close to his campaign, to be an alternative for presidency if Zuma takes a fall. "The fall of Zuma will not mean the rise of Mbeki," says the lobbyist who refused to be named.

However, Sexwale does not have enough support within the organisation's leadership - except for Nelson Mandela and a handful of NEC members - nor the rank and file.

In the event that Zuma is convicted, Sexwale might not be an automatic compromise candidate.

Zuma has already told senior ANC leaders in 2005, when he sensed that he may be imprisoned, that if "he takes a fall" they should support ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe. This is why Zuma's camp insists on Motlanthe as deputy president while Mbeki's camp detests the secretary-general.

Motlanthe is also preferred by DA leader Helen Zille who admitted this after she was elected leader. Yesterday, Zille asked Zuma not to contest for the presidency in the light of the court decision.

But if Zuma wins in Limpopo, the country is likely to see the fiercest battle for power in the 18 months to the 2009 elections between him as president of the ANC and Mbeki, the head of state.

"Zuma will not allow the man he believes is responsible for his fate to continue abusing State organs. He will want to use his position as ANC president to rein him in.

"This is why Zuma wants this (ANC presidency) so badly."

Several ANC NEC members are already talking about recalling Mbeki as president of the country. SACP and Cosatu have agitated for getting rid of Mbeki and his sympathisers. However, this will entirely depend on the Limpopo conference.

But Mbeki, warns a government official, will not allow "partisan political pressure and populism" to dictate the justice process and rule of law.

Zuma is hoping the Limpopo conference will save him while Mbeki - through lobbyists - is confident that he will win a last term.

South Africa, in the meantime, is heading towards a leadership crisis.

* This article was originally published on page 9 of The Pretoria News on November 09, 2007
 
Related Articles

With acknowledgement to Moshoeshoe Monare and Cape Argus.