Moshoeshoe Monare unpacks the unfolding drama that is the battle between President Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma

Hardly two years ago, the all-powerful President Thabo Mbeki found himself as an object for taunting and ridicule.

Mbeki was humiliated by ANC delegates to the national general council (NGC), with some of them warning that he would be cruelly ejected at the next conference. Some even went as far as calling for an extraordinary special conference, where a vote of no-confidence would be tabled against him. At that time, former Limpopo premier Ngoako Ramatlhodi said Mbeki would be made to "run away naked".

The special conference did not materialise, and the ANC's policy conference, where decision would be made on major policies for this country, became the next stage for renewed efforts to topple Mbeki.

At the policy conference, when the ANC leadership was discussed, the majority of commissions demanded that the ANC president must be the country's president - thereby registering another rejection of Mbeki.

At this point ANC secretary- general Kgalema Motlanthe intervened and warned people not to twist the organisation's constitution just do deal with an individual.

He cautioned that such anger was "seasonal".

Therefore, the past weekend's provincial nominations for the ANC presidency are partially a victory for the man who was written off by commentators and some of his comrades.

An SMS from an Mbeki sympathiser yesterday morning warned: "It is not over until the fat lady sings." The fat lady referred to here is the national conference at the University of Limpopo in 19 days' time.

Mluleki George, an Mbeki lobbyist and deputy defence minister, said last week: "We can't give up until the last moment. After [this weekend], we will know who to work on."

Mbeki has fought fiercely against his party deputy Jacob Zuma, whose popularity has spurred the rank and file to rise against a leadership that was feared for years.

The 1 394 votes Mbeki got against Zuma's overwhelming 2 236 - excluding Zuma's votes from the ANC Youth League and the decision from the Women's League - proved that the reaction after the NGC was indeed seasonal.

A Zuma sympathiser has pointed out that Mbeki's victories in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape has introduced a tribal element to the succession battle because those provinces are predominantly Xhosa. However, the same can be said about Zuma's resounding victory in KwaZulu Natal, his home province.

An interesting contrast emerged when Mbeki was thrashed by 580 votes to nine in KwaZulu Natal, while his victory in his heartland of the Eastern Cape was 520 to 322.

But for Zuma, who says he is being harassed and humiliated by law enforcement agencies orchestrated by Mbeki, the weekend's victory was mass power versus firepower.

Surely, Zuma is looking back cringingly when he remembers a call to Motlanthe to inform him that he would no longer participate in ANC structures.

This was after he was charged and raided by the Scorpions. He was resigned to his fate of a possible prison sentence. He had given up any hope of resuscitating his political career until delegates at the NGC overturned what they saw as an ill-judged decision.

The latest developments surely strengthen Zuma's resolve not to broker any deals going into the Limpopo decider.

There has previously been talk of finding a third way that would have seen both him and Mbeki pulling out of the race in favour of a third, less divisive candidate.

It is hard to see Zuma being ready for a compromise after the weekend's results.

This is why ANC Eastern Cape chairperson Stone Sizane, who was instrumental in campaigning for a third Mbeki term, is suddenly talking unity.

A very senior Mbeki ally called a Zuma chief campaigner on Friday with a peace offering. This olive branch was politely rebuffed.

While this was going on, Zuma was on a charm offensive overseas. He has projected himself as a statesman and a reconciler.

He has gone out of his way to calm the financial markets, assure the international community, and allay white and middle-class fears.

Mbeki has never contested a post in his political life.

He was co-opted into the ANC national executive committee (NEC) in exile and was anointed by Mandela as his successor.

Five years ago, Zuma released a statement, just before the 2002 conference in Stellenbosch, declaring that he would not be challenging Mbeki for the presidency.

There was a near-contest in 1991 at the ANC first conference in South Africa after it was unbanned. Then, the late SA Communist Party general secretary Chris Hani was determined to fight it out with Mbeki for the post of deputy president.

The showdown was averted when Joel Netshitenzhe, Peter Mokaba and Mathews Phosa convinced Walter Sisulu to stand as a compromise candidate

Fast-forward to 2007, and the stage is set for a battle royal.

Mbeki's obsession about his legacy and suspicions about Zuma may intensify his tenacity to fight by any means necessary unless his nemesis withdraws.

Mbeki clearly doesn't want Zuma to succeed him. He has twice told the House of Traditional Leaders about corrupt leadership, saying in Pretoria in May that the budget surplus experienced this year would come to naught if the country was in the wrong hands.

There is talk, mainly from Zuma campaigners, that the next 19 days will be "tough and dirty" and with possible accusations of vote-rigging.

A win for Mbeki would mean that he could influence the government from Luthuli House, ensuring that his legacy - both on domestic and foreign policy - remains intact.

A defeat would have dire consequences for him as president of the country. He would see out the reminder of his term in office as president of the country reporting to a man he fired from his government.

His leadership of the country could be crippled by an interfering Luthuli House.

Firstly, the conference next month is set to endorse policy conference resolutions that put an end to the president solely appointing premiers, and Mbeki would have to consult the party regarding who he appoints to his cabinet and on the reshuffles.

Secondly, the key complaint from the Left, and Zuma intermittently repeats this, is that economic policies have not benefited the poor and therefore there is a need for an overhaul.

Also, an NEC member and key Zuma ally has already spoken, privately, about a possible recall of the president. It sounds far-fetched, but if the NEC is dominated by Zuma sympathisers whose common objective is resentment for Mbeki, this is plausible - especially given South Africa's parliamentary system, where the president and MPs are technically at the mercy of their party.

However, an Mbeki defeat is not necessarily a total victory for Zuma, who is still to face possible criminal charges which - if the rule of law prevails - can be brought against him even if he is president of the ANC or the country.

His campaigners are now punting Motlanthe as a successor should such a worst-case scenario unfold.

Interference with the due process of the law is unthinkable and Zuma supporters know it would plunge any government into pariah status.

But the corruption case is also a nightmare for Mbeki, as Zuma has indicated that he would implicate and call him as a witness in the event of his being charged in connection with arms deal corruption.

Without clear evidence, German investigations have dragged Mbeki's name into the arms deal quagmire.

The investigation into the arms deal, which was initially defended by the two men, is now prodding them to fight each other tooth and nail.

The battle for the soul of the ANC has indeed morphed into a war for the control of the oldest and the most powerful ruling party in Africa.

With acknowledgements to Moshoeshoe Monare and The Star.