When President Thabo Mbeki told a joint sitting of Parliament on June 14 2005 that he was releasing his deputy, Jacob Zuma, from his position because of his links with convicted fraudster Schabir Shaik, it looked as if Zuma’s political career was over.

Zuma was also forced to suspend his participation in ANC structures.

Then followed unsuccessful corruption — and later rape — charges, and the public perception was that Zuma, whether the victim of a conspiracy or not, was finished.

But by the completion of last weekend’s ANC provincial nominations, the process had come full circle, with Zuma emerging as the frontrunner to lead the party at its Polokwane conference later this month.

The reality is that, in handling the ANC succession, Mbeki has totally underestimated the number of enemies he created both during his assumption of power and since.

One senior ANC MP puts it this way: “The President has taken far too much for granted. He underestimated the degree to which he has alienated people in the ANC over the years.

“The President believes that because of his role and his contribution here and globally, because of the number of years he has committed to the party, because of his profile, that people would immediately choose him over Zuma.”

Mbeki, he says, has created the “coalition of the wounded” that has rallied around Zuma and he has underestimated how large and how angry this alienated sector of the ANC is.

“The President took none of this into consideration. The outcome we are seeing is a result of the way in which he has been behaving for many years, but particularly since 1999.”

Zuma’s stamina and his ability to “jump on a particular bandwagon”, turning victimhood into a powerful political weapon, were also things that Mbeki failed to understand.

‘‘Zuma has become a symbol for all of those who feel they have been victims of an Mbeki presidency, be they from the left, the middle class who have failed to get tenders, the poor who have no jobs.

‘‘Many of these are wrong in their perceptions, but there is a large chunk who have legitimate grievances and who have thrown in their lot with Zuma.

‘‘The chickens have come home to roost ... It will be very, very hard to reverse such a big majority through fair means,’’ the MP adds.

SACP secretary-general Blade Nzimande believes Mbeki’s “1996 class project” was doomed to enrage ANC membership from the beginning, based as it was on dumping popular policies and replacing them —without consultation — with Gear.

‘‘The ’96 class project chose a particular route and style of managing the ANC and the alliance, in the process marginalising not just the allies, but the ANC membership.”

This, Nzimande says, has resulted in the ANC’s membership now rejecting those policies and management style — “a manifestation of the deepening of the crisis”.

“Despite the general assault on the person of Jacob Zuma, the ANC membership and its allies have been very mature and have been able to see through the whole thing,” Nzimande says.

“There are very few people who now believe that he will get a fair trial.”

With acknowledgements to Paddy Harper and The Times.