On the face of it, the new-look African National Congress (ANC) national executive committee's decision to compile a "factual" report on the controversial multibillion-rand arms deal is an encouraging step in the right direction.

This newspaper has for some time been calling for the reopening of the arms deal investigation, as have a range of opposition political parties and civil society organisations that were concerned that the original investigators were prevented from digging deeply enough to either prove or disprove the widespread allegations of corruption that have dogged the deal.

There has also been sufficient new information released into the public domain in recent months ­ including former ANC MP Andrew Feinstein's revelation in his book After the Party of official attempts to quash the investigation, and the outcome of probes conducted by foreign countries into the conduct of arms suppliers that were awarded South African contracts ­ to justify a fresh independent inquiry.

However, in the light of the dramatic power shift that took place in the ruling party at its acrimonious national conference, there is little in official statements that can be taken at face value. The new NEC is packed with supporters of newly elected ANC president Jacob Zuma, many of whom have an axe to grind with an increasingly beleaguered President Thabo Mbeki. Revenge is in the air.

ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe was at pains to emphasise that the intention was not to reopen the arms deal investigation, but to conduct a closed internal inquiry aimed specifically at helping Zuma's defence against corruption and related charges arising from his involvement in the deal.

Read with the party's characterisation of the charges against Zuma as "undeniably political", it is hard to escape the conclusion that the main purpose of the internal probe is not to get to the truth, but to dig up enough dirt on Mbeki and others perceived to be persecuting Zuma to persuade the government and its agencies to squeeze the arms deal genie back into its bottle.

This interpretation is supported by the composition of the new NEC and its all-powerful 28-member national working committee, which was elected on Monday. The latter includes former ANC MP Tony Yengeni, who is on parole after being convicted on fraud charges linked to the arms deal, as well as former South African National Defence Force head Siphiwe Nyanda, whose name appeared on a list of 29 senior defence officials alleged to have illegally accepted substantial discounts on luxury vehicles from a successful arms deal bidder. There is a strong feeling among such individuals that they, and Zuma, have been made scapegoats for others in the ANC who have committed far more serious acts of corruption.

In his answering affidavit before the original corruption case against him was struck off the roll, Zuma alluded to the possibility that he would take others down with him should the charges be pursued, pointing out that Mbeki was "very much involved in the arms deal" as deputy president at the time and chairman of the subcommittee that made all of the arms deal contract decisions.

Feinstein, who resigned in protest as an ANC MP and head of Parliament's standing committee on public accounts (Scopa) after claiming that the arms deal investigation had been emasculated by the ruling party hierarchy, alleges in his book that Mbeki intervened directly and through loyal lieutenants such as Minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad to stymie the Scopa investigation, persuade the British not to pursue a probe into BAE's role in the bidding, and pressurise the auditor-general to change a report that characterised aspects of the deal as "flawed" *1.

There is, in other words, plenty of scope for Mbeki's legacy to be severely tainted, at the very least, should those who now head the ANC decide to go for him. Their call for a detailed internal report on the arms deal is a clear shot across Mbeki's bows. But it is a risky move that raises the stakes considerably, given that there have also been persistent allegations that the ANC itself was one of the biggest beneficiaries of arms deal corruption.

If neither side blinks and Zuma's trial proceeds, the combination of witnesses' testimony and maliciously leaked allegations against others could tear the party *2 ­ not to mention the country ­ apart.

With acknowledgements to Business Day.