Last Gambit for Mbeki, Zuma [Business Day, 2008-01-12]

Publication: Business Day Issued: Date: 2008-01-12 Reporter: Xolela Mangcu

Last Gambit for Mbeki, Zuma

Publication	Business Day
Date	2008-01-12
Reporter	Xolela Mangcu
Web Link	www.bday.co.za

..........[nonsens]...........

And that's the same guy who sent me a message saying: "Best wishes for the new year to you and JZ." He was not the only one to accuse me so. About half a dozen people made the same accusation. Someone would walk into the shebeen, buy a beer, sit quietly for a while, and then say: "Ah, Ngcu-boy, you guys must be celebrating; your man has won." I simply refused to be drawn into any political discussion.

But after a few helpings of good Scotch, the inhibitions went away and I was all agog about how great it was that the country was now relieved of Mbeki *1.

Someone sent me the following SMS: "Free at last, ma Jola. That's the country you return to post-Polokwane. A victory you helped usher with your pen and prose. You helped demystify the age of arrogance and intellectual thuggery *2. We have a reason to celebrate. Freedom from denialism, delusion and intellectual pretensions. Happy holidays." I try to explain to my buddies that I would have preferred Tokyo Sexwale or anybody else other than Mbeki or Zuma. In the final analysis, I came to support Zuma as Mbeki was the greater danger to our society.

So much for trying to be nuanced at 1am after a good helping of scotch, music blaring in the background and everyone hollering at you. There's no Dr Mangcu here. It's Ngcu-boy arguing endlessly with his childhood friends.

I should also say that some of these dudes have had varied experiences with the law, to put it mildly. Some of them have been on the wrong side of the law for so long that they have pretty intimate knowledge of the functioning of the criminal justice system. I'm afraid what they have to say will come as cold comfort to JZ. They asked me to take with me a message to my "friend JZ". In their respective experiences, it is unheard of for anyone to escape 18 charges. And so they tell me that JZ may have won the battle but will certainly lose the war for the South African presidency.

By being against Mbeki's attempt to get a third term, I was automatically Zuma's man, my nuanced argument for a third candidate notwithstanding. The beauty of all of this is that these buddies of mine are Mbeki-ites and we can break bread together. There's a lesson there for both Mbeki-ites and Zuma-ites in the ANC. Kiss and make up, which is exactly what I have to do with the friend whose meat I ate. Hard but necessary.

Last gambit for Mbeki, Zuma

The prosecution of Jacob Zuma is Thabo Mbeki's last gambit. Equally, the argument that the charges are politically motivated is Zuma's last gambit. Zuma's people want to draw Mbeki into the quagmire by reopening the arms deal. Remember, Zuma has alleged that it was Mbeki who negotiated the deal and it was Mbeki who penned the letter to Gavin Woods warning against parliamentary investigation.

Imagine then if Vusi Pikoli also emerged to suggest that Mbeki discussed the case against Zuma with him on that trip to Santiago, Chile, and that he ordered the warrants of arrest against national police commissioner Jackie Selebi be withdrawn. Politically, the stage would be set for Parliament to act against Mbeki. Legally, Zuma's case would then rest not so much on the substance of the charges as it would on the technical argument that he could not possibly have a fair trial *3, and that he has not been treated equally under the law *4.

Add to all of this former ANC MP Andrew Feinstein's call for Mbeki to be investigated. In the end Mbeki could be the one having to defend himself.

With acknowledgements to Xolela Mangcu and Business Day.

*1       Sure, but's what the alternative?

*2      To be replaced by the age of stupidity and pure thuggery.

*3      Pure nonsense.

Having a fair trial is about having :

a fairly well drafted indictment (to know what charges one may answer - so far there have been no complaints about that from any quarter);
a fair judge (there is no doubt Tshabalala JP will be able to find one in kwaZulu-Natal or he can import one from another division);
a pair of assessors judge (there is no doubt Tshabalala JP will be able to find two in kwaZulu-Natal or he can import them from another division);
a fair prosecuting team (and Advocated Billy Downer SC and Anton Steynberg have proved that they rate amongst the fair prosecuting team in the entire world, let alone the country;
access to a suitably qualified legal team (while this is the prerogative of the Accused in this case, there is the ultra-confident Kemp J Kemp, who, although his father had a strange sense of humour, is getting paid through a infinitely deep pot of taxpayers' money which also facilitates the employment of a clutch of other senior counsel, junior counsel, attorneys and paralegals;
access to the Supreme Court of Appeal in Bloemfontein if the trial judge errs in any way in interpreting the law or any of the evidence, where the matter will be heard again more-or-less afresh by five of the best, most dedicated and honest judges in the country;
access to the Constitutional Court in Braamfontein if the SCA judge errs in any way in interpreting the law with reference to the Constitution, where the matter will be heard by nine judges.

No one can reasonably say that at this stage Zuma is not going to get a fair trial.

No one can say that the 16 charges as formulated are not a fair reflection of the prima facie evidence as gleaned by the DSO investigating team and assessed by the NPA prosecuting team.

None of the accused, not Accused 1, Accused 2, Accused 3, nor Pierre Robert Jean-Marie Moynot representing Accused 2 and 3, have said that they are not guilty of the charges in the indictment, only that they will defend the charges on technical defences.

Sorry, in this case, unless the accused can on the balance of probability a priori convince the judge, the SCA and the CC that the trial will definitely be unfair based on all of these factors, he hasn't got a snowball's hope in hades.

Failing this, the proper time to raise a defence of an unfair trial is at the SCA.

But newsflash , the latest news is that Zuma (and maybe The Two Thints) will in the next two to three weeks be bringing an application before the High Court to obtain a permanent stay of prosecution in respect of a raft of criminal charges involving racketeering, bribery, general corruption, money laundering, tax evasion, fraud and lying to Parliament.

*4      I am not a lawyer, but logic and reason *5 dictates that an accused has no absolute right to be treated equally under the law, only that they be treated fairly under the law.

*5      Because, inter alia, inter alia, one accused might have Warrant Officer Jeff Benzien *6 as case officer and another accused might have Senior Special Investigator Johan du Plooy as case officer.

It's like cheese and benzine.

*6      Later Captain, SAPS.