Three weeks after the African National Congress's (ANC's) national conference in Polokwane, the Jacob Zuma camp is expected to make another sweep when the party elects its powerful national working committee (NWC) on Monday. The NWC will be elected at the national executive committee's (NEC's) first meeting since the Polokwane conference.

At the conference last month, the divisions within the party came to the fore as Zuma beat President Thabo Mbeki to the post of president. The party also chose its other top five office bearers as well as its 80-person NEC. The divide between Zuma supporters and Mbeki-ites was further accentuated during this election ­ a rift that is expected to be amplified over Mbeki's last 18 months as SA 's president.

While the NEC normally convenes four or five times a year, it wields power through the NWC, its main subcommittee that meets fortnightly at party headquarters, Luthuli House.

The NWC consists of the ANC's top six national office bearers, together with 15 members selected from within the membership of the NEC.

Ex-officio members are former presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, as well as the leaders of the youth and women's leagues, Fikile Mbalula and Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, and the ANC's head of international affairs.

Nominations and elections will take place at the Monday meeting ­ the newly elected NEC's first ­ which is likely to be presided over by Zuma or national chairman Baleka Mbete.

"The big question is whether it is going to be a magnanimous election," says political analyst Adam Habib, who is also deputy vice chancellor of the University of Johannesburg. It is expected that there will be a purge of Mbeki allies from the NWC.

"This division (in the ANC) is deep; people didn't understand it until the conference," says Bantu Holomisa, an ex-ANC NEC member who now heads the United Democratic Movement .

Habib says the outcome of the election will show how the rift will manifest itself . A pre dominance of Zuma allies is likely to set the stage for an acrimonious relationship between the two camps, while retaining some of the old members will hint at conciliation.

Unlike the last NWC, which retained eight members from the previous body, pending charges against Zuma may harden attitudes and preclude this outcome.

Of the 15 directly elected members of the outgoing NWC, 11 are cabinet members. It also includes a former cabinet minister, Penuell Maduna, and a close Mbeki ally, Joel Netshitenzhe, the head of the presidential policy unit.

Most of them lost their seats on the NEC, making it most likely that the NWC will be dominated by Zuma supporters, even if it is purely by default.

"I think the NWC will be dominated by the Msholozi-trusted people. He will not want to have a division in case there are crucial decisions to be made," says Holomisa .

Although heavily aligned towards the Zuma camp, the new NWC is likely to be a mixed bag of interests, reflecting the diversity of the tripartite alliance.

"If Zuma doesn't do that, he will be vulnerable to attacks by Cosatu (the Congress of South African Trade Unions) and the SACP (South African Communist Party," Holomisa says.

Holomisa feels the NWC would do well to retain Netshitenzhe as well as Arts and Culture M inister Pallo Jordan, while voting in Education Minister Naledi Pandor and SACP deputy general secretary Jeremy Cronin . "If you have those four, it's fine. They are thinkers, not just howlers."

Another "worthy" addition would be former South African National Defence Force head Siphiwe Nyanda. "The security cluster needs to have somebody there," says the former Transkei strongman. But he disqualifies Billy Masetlha, saying the former National Intelligence Agency head "needs a cooling season".

Masetlha, who was acquitted on allegations of contravening the Intelligence Oversight Act, told a gathering of Umkonto weSizwe veterans recently that Mbeki and his cabinet would be "recalled" from their government positions unless they "account" to Luthuli House.

Whatever its composition, the NWC will have its work cut out for it, not least because the Zuma trial, scheduled for August, will take a toll on party unity. He faces 16 charges, one count of racketeering, two counts of corruption, one count of money laundering and 12 counts of fraud involving up to R4m.

Many believe the trial is a plot to scupper Zuma's chances of becoming the ANC's presidential candidate when election preparations begin .

With acknowledgements to Wilson Johwa and Business Day.