Someone, Churchill I think, once said that if there was cricket in Heaven then he would pray for rain when he died. He should have been in SA this past month. The grass and the hills are green. The cows and sheep are fat. The dams are full. Good rains and healthy harvests and animals mean that the political and economic crises we are in have less of an impact than they might. The centre holds. High interest rates, a failure to generate sufficient electricity and the absence of national, provincial and, in many cases, local leadership have dented but not broken spirits.

But we are being tested in ways we could not have imagined just a year ago. Would the power cuts really be this bad? Would you really have to pay double your bond? Would the president really have tried to protect a suspected criminal?

It isn't his defeat at Polokwane that has made Thabo Mbeki irrelevant. It's his betrayal of the trust of people who might otherwise have looked to him for leadership about how best to see in the coming presidency of Jacob Zuma and his camp.

To call into question, as Mbeki did, the "appropriateness" in office of suspended NPA boss Vusi Pikoli for declining to consult a flaky minister about arresting the national chief of police ­ while finding nothing inappropriate about Jackie Selebi's public friendship with a gangster ­ was breathtakingly poor judgment. Mbeki bet his integrity on retaining leadership of the ANC, but he has now lost both.

Jacob Zuma is a different kettle of fish. Leadership hasn't been handed him on a plate. He was no one's favourite in exile. He has endured arguably the worst press of any public figure anywhere in the world for the past seven years. He is almost impossible to defame. Yet even though he is only party leader and faces trial (and probable conviction on some counts) for fraud and racketeering and corruption later this year, the stability of the country rests with him.

It is a terrible burden and we can take more comfort than fright out of the fact that Zuma has embedded himself in the party. Sure, there are some dodgy characters in the "structures" but there are some smart and honourable ones too. And they have a voice, unlike, it is now apparent, the structures did under Mbeki.

The consequences of that are all too apparent in areas like AIDS and crime, but let us not get too carried away by his economic record either. To have averaged 5% GDP growth during the greatest commodity prices boom in history is not that impressive. And while Mbeki broke with economic convention to make this a "developmental state", all that happened is that decisions got delayed (Eskom), the cost of doing business here rose (Eskom, Telkom), and corruption deepened (an ANC front company lands a huge contract to build one of Eskom's power stations!).

The lessons for Zuma of recent events are many, but some are more important than others:

First, sir, a progressive government need not control the economy. Governments that try hardly ever succeed. Don't be seduced by the odd success. Privatise everything. Give it all to the unions if you must, as long as competition is encouraged. The job of a progressive government must surely be the distribution ­ and not the creation ­ of wealth.

Second, beware of men bearing gifts. Stop the gift thing now. Make it an offence for any public or party official to get any gift whatsoever.

Third, fund political parties openly out of the public purse.

Fourth, consider the merits of a plea bargain on the charges you face *1. We can't have you going to jail *2.

Fifth, reconsider the party decision to disband the Scorpions. It looks bad for you *3, given that they have investigated you, and these people are a good advertisement for SA and the ANC. Disbanding them now would look like an act of political revenge, which would be foolish. There is a strong case for an independent prosecutions body with its own investigative capability. There is no logical case for not having one. Both the NPA and the police could fall under the justice ministry. Find a strong candidate to run it.

THIS column returns and will appear every Monday. Thanks, meanwhile, for putting up with a much-reduced newspaper over the holidays. Just a few more days now and we'll be back to normal.

With acknowledgements to Peter Bruce and Business Day.