There is a good possibility that ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma will succeed Thabo Mbeki as ANC president. If he were to be elected ANC president at the party's 52nd national conference in Polokwane, there would be more than a good chance of his succeeding Mbeki as head of government.

Given the overwhelming support that Zuma received in the nominations for president, there is no doubt that he is hugely popular within the ANC. There is also no doubt that Mbeki has angered a lot of people in the party he has led for the past 10 years. It is quite clear that a good percentage of the votes for Zuma were, in fact, votes against Mbeki.

The clear and present possibility that Zuma will become the president of this country leads to a number of questions. The first and the most important is about his ability.

Though there can be no doubt that Zuma would be a leader more popular than Mbeki, there are doubts about whether he would be able to maintain the political and economic stability that Mbeki achieved with distinction.

Zuma has problems. Firstly, he has displayed bad judgment - having sex with an HIV-positive woman without protection is one example.

And it is clear from the evidence led in the Schabir Shaik trial that he has a serious disability when it comes to managing his personal finances.

And he surrounds himself with questionable characters, some of whom have attracted the attention of the law enforcement agencies.

The ANC deputy president also faces the serious possibility of being charged for offences relating to the government's arms-procurement deal. He is currently fighting the Scorpions in the constitutional court over their long investigation into the allegations against him.

When ANC delegates vote for a new president today, they will bring into office a man who is hugely popular but who has these serious problems as an individual.

These are some of the few black marks on Zuma's score sheet. These are the problems that he, if he becomes president, would have to deal with. These are concerns that ordinary South Africans carry on a daily basis.

Zuma, and the ANC that would elect him, would have to work hard to convince South Africans first, then Africa and the rest of the world, that the shortcomings that Zuma has shown would not adversely affect his leadership of the ANC and of South Africa.

It must be clear to Zuma that, if he is victorious at Polokwane, he will start his historic tenure burdened with some negative perceptions of his character, and as a leader he will have a lot of work to do to overcome them.

With acknowledgements to Sunday Independent.