The Jacob Zuma era has not gotten off to a good start. Hardly had he
been elected president of the African National Congress (ANC) on Tuesday than
that party (his faithful, no doubt) voted in a resolution
to disband the Scorpions.
The vote is relatively meaningless but the Scorpions (they're the people who
have been investigating Zuma for corruption in the arms deal) can indeed be laid
to rest by a vote in Parliament.
The point here is that, surely, Jacob Zuma will recognise the dangers inherent
in a "decision" like this. To attack an institution merely because it is doing
its job in investigating you would be the start of a spiral downwards in SA from
which, trust me, there would be no return.
Zuma, who, in exile, had been chief of intelligence for the ANC, has apparently
been convinced there is a plot against him ever since he was left off the small
group that included Joe Slovo and Mac Maharaj who were, in the early 1990s ,
supposed to head negotiations for the ANC with the apartheid authorities. But
Mbeki was also left off this group.
What that means is that we may have another thin-skinned
guy to lead us after Mbeki goes. From a newspaper perspective that is
a juicy prospect.
But he should really also stop, now, trying to evade the Scorpions. I perfectly
understand that he can't talk about the allegations of corruption against him,
but it surely has to be time now or never to face the courts. Let's get it
done with.
Of course, if Zuma is charged with corruption (as he surely must be) and
convicted, he will receive a jail sentence easily long enough to prevent him
ever becoming president of the country. I am sure he knows that, just as he must
know that the state in such a case would not oppose a
suspended sentence *1.
It's then assumed that the kindly Kgalema Motlanthe, the former
secretary- general of the ANC, and elevated in Polokwane to the position of
deputy president, would step into the breach and become head of state. I doubt
it. Motlanthe is a nice guy in every possible way but he couldn't run the
country. My guess is that the job would fall to Tokyo Sexwale, who modestly (but
very publicly) stood back from the Polokwane fray after having made his support
for Zuma absolutely clear.
I'm a big fan of the two centres of power thing anyway, and I reckon Tokyo would
make a good president, especially if Zuma were around to keep the party
tranquil. n
The tragedy of all of this is that the next president of the country should
really be Cyril Ramaphosa. But there was no way he was going to run while Mbeki
was a candidate at Polokwane.
Did, I wonder, Mbeki ever appreciate the extent to which he was keeping other
people out of the race by pressing ahead with his own
disastrous campaign?
There can be no forgiving Mbeki the destruction he has brought on his own
people. Look at the results of the party's national executive committee (NEC)
last night. Barely a member of the Mbeki cabinet has survived, and some of them
are really good at what they do.
Sure, there is deadwood in cabinet, but Mbeki should have cried off and let
someone else take on Zuma. Imagine the result had Ramaphosa had a clear 18
months to run at Zuma? Had just 250 delegates voted the other way on Tuesday
Zuma would have lost. Mbeki was as arrogant about his own prospects for
re-election as he has been about crime and AIDS and Zimbabwe in other words,
wrong again. I keep trying to tell myself we'll miss him when he is gone, but
maybe I'm also wrong.
JA, WELL, I don't know what I am doing writing this column. I meant to stop it
but I miss writing it. Perhaps, as some readers suggested, a little discipline
might mean I wouldn't have to come in to the office every Sunday to write it for
Monday. Monday is still my day though.
I'll try to make a plan and start it again full time from late January. In the
meantime, here's the question of the year: why would Jake White settle for
something as mediocre as selling communication "solutions" as a future? I don't
know his new boss, Gavin Varejes, but why couldn't he just pay the Bishops
school fees instead of demeaning Jake by conjuring up a non-job for the best
rugby coach in the world?
With acknowledgements
to Peter Bruce and Business Day.
*1Why not?
Give it a try.
Schabir will be upset that he must sit inside why his co-conspirator sits
outside.
But Schabir had his chances and decided to take his chance by lying to the court
and trying to protect his beneficiary who might one day become his benefactor by
giving him a presidential pardon.