South Africa's future would be determined in the next 18 months by a struggle of "various forces" within the African National Congress, political analyst Professor Stephen Friedman said on Wednesday.

He and fellow academic and analyst Professor Adam Habib were speaking at the University of Pretoria as part of the African Dialogue Lecture series looking at the ANC after the Polokwane conference and its implications for South Africa.

"Those people who assume that future is cast in stone because 'the civilised okes are gone and the barbarians have taken over' are entirely misreading the situation; the dominant feature is fluidity," Friedman said.

"Part of the outcome over the next few years will be settled by a tussle over the next 18 months between various forces. My hope is that those forces who want a deeper and more vigorous democracy manage to win the argument," he added.

Habib said the question over the new ANC leadership was whether they were at the point where they were "going to repeat the lesson of defeat in victory.

"If they don't focus on an inclusive transition, if they don't reflect a political maturity that allows for a representative leadership, if they start acting against state institutions and undermine the legitimacy of the state, they are going to sow the seed of their future ruin at the point of victory," he said.

With acknowledgements to Sapa.